Here is the Executive Summary from their report:
The sentencing of the opposition deputy leader, Kem Sokha, on 9th September underscores the deteriorating political risks in Cambodia.
Sokha, who is the vice-president of the main opposition Cambodian National Rescue Party (CNRP), was found guilty of failing to appear in court as a witness to another case.
This development is concurrent with continued attempts by the ruling Cambodian People’s Party (CPP) to curtail the growth of a strong and coherent opposition.
Tensions have persisted since the disputed 2013 election and the CPP continues to use state institutions for political gain.
Our ‘Most Likely Scenario’ anticipates that, in the short-to-medium term, the CNRP will mobilise its supporters to carry out protests countrywide.
In the medium-to-long term, the status quo will continue and political risks will remain MODERATE.
In a 'Worst Case Scenario', the short-to medium term increase in protests carried out by the CNRP will result in a military crackdown and the mass arrest of CNRP activists and politicians.
In the medium-to-long term, the deteriorated political situation and continued military support in propping up the CPP could lead to the postponement of scheduled local elections in 2017.
For a full copy of the report, click here.