Global Threat Analyst, MENA
‘The October Revolution’
Healix assess the current political risk to be HIGH in Lebanon, with a rapidly deteriorating trend owing to widespread protests
Tax increases and a proposed charge on calls made via WhatsApp announced in Lebanon on 17th October have triggered the largest countrywide demonstrations since 2015. Millions of people have since protested in Beirut, Tripoli and other urban centres and have clashed with security forces. As a result, Prime Minister Saad Hariri offered his resignation on 29th October, likely leading to a prolonged period of instability. In an attempt to quell the protests, the government has promised economic reforms, but there is little trust among the public that the government will deal with longer-term structural issues affecting the population.
In recent years, poor governance in Lebanon has led to significant economic decline and public debt is currently around 150% of GDP, the third-highest globally, and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) anticipates will increase to 155% by the end of 2019. A poor economy and various other long term socio-economic grievances will ensure protests intensify and may spontaneously occur throughout the country.
Advice to travellers
If you or any of your employees are currently travelling in this area, our team of security experts have put together the following advice on how to stay safe. Healix has extensive experience operating in Lebanon; if you have a need for a more in-depth conversation or believe you may require a security evacuation, please reach out to email@example.com for additional information.
- Monitor developments on a daily basis – this can be done via international and Middle East focused news sources including (but not limited to) the BBC, NYT, Reuters, Wall Street Journal, Middle East Eye, Al Jazeera, Al Monitor and the Daily Star Lebanon.
- Defer non-essential travel while protests persist.
- Make sure to be familiarised with flashpoint locations in urban centres. In Beirut, these include Riad al-Sohl and Martyrs’ Square and the Central Bank.
- Ensure mobile phones are sufficiently charged prior to ground moves.
- Avoid discussing the protests in public. Do not take pictures of protesters.
- Strictly avoid all demonstrations in Lebanon owing to the risk of unrest.
- If exposed to tear gas, hold your breath while you vacate the area to prevent the worst of the symptoms. Ideally, it is advised to cover your mouth with your shirt/jacket and, as much as possible, keep your eyes closed. When you’re in a place of safety, rinse your eyes and face with cold water, change your clothes, shower and then seek medical attention if needed. Symptoms associated with tear gas tend to wear off on their own in around 30 minutes.
- Book accommodation outside of the vicinity of main flashpoint locations.
- Security managers should ensure evacuation plans are up-to-date in case of a rapid deterioration in the security environment in Lebanon.