Risk Map 2024 vs 2025: What's changed?

The security risk rating for Central Sulawesi has been lowered from high to moderate, bringing it in line with the overall security situation in Indonesia. This is mainly due to the breakup of key militant groups like Jemaah Islamiyah (JI) and the Eastern Indonesia Mujahidin, which once had a strong presence in the region. These groups, especially JI, were involved in terrorism and kidnappings but their activities have been increasingly reduced by the Indonesian security forces.

The possibility remains that splinter groups could emerge over the coming year, owing to discontent with JI leaders’ steps to disband the organisation, although Indonesian security forces are well-equipped to address such risks.

Additionally, there have been no recent clashes between Muslim and Protestant communities, reducing the risk of intra-state conflict. Despite these improvements, the region still faces risks from natural disasters and potential isolated unrest.

The security risk rating for New Caledonia has increased from low to moderate due to escalating unrest following a controversial French voting reform bill. Since May 2024, pro-independence activists have led violent protests, blockades, arson, and looting in opposition to changes to the electoral roll. Despite France deploying over 3,000 security personnel and declaring a state of emergency, violence continued, with renewed clashes after detained activists were deported in June 2024.

The unrest has caused major disruptions, particularly in the early stages when roadblocks restricted movement, and La Tontouta International Airport (NOU) operated on a limited basis. The airport reopened in June 2024 after the French government suspended the reform bill following deadly violence. While critical infrastructure remains secure, security forces remain deployed as crime, arson, and looting continue. Economic challenges, including rising unemployment, could further drive unrest. While the voting reform is on hold, tensions remain high, and the broader political dispute is unresolved.

The security risk rating for Myanmar’s border areas and insurgency-affected regions has risen from high to extreme due to worsening conflict. Insurgent groups have gained significant territory from the military government, increasing risks such as crime, kidnapping, and cultural tensions. The civil war remains intense, particularly in Chin, Kachin, Karen, Rakhine, and Shan states, posing serious risks, especially for travellers outside major cities. Insurgent-held areas are highly vulnerable to military airstrikes, further heightening risks.

The conflict has worsened since the military lost ground, particularly following the Three Brotherhood Alliance launch of Operation 1027 in October 2023. A China-brokered ceasefire in January 2024 failed, and fighting resumed, with insurgents advancing in Shan and Rakhine states. In Rakhine, the Arakan Army’s actions have heightened tensions between the Arakanese and Rohingya communities. Lawlessness in insurgent-controlled areas has led to more crime and violence, while military airstrikes continue to cause civilian casualties. The conflict has also spilled into border areas, increasing military tensions with neighbouring countries such as China and Thailand.

El Salvador’s security risk rating has been lowered from high to moderate due to a sustained decline in crime, kidnapping, and violence linked to organised criminal groups.

Since 2022, a continuous state of emergency has decreased the capability of local criminal groups, known as maras, which once controlled parts of San Salvador and other areas. The deployment of the Armed Forces and National Civil Police, less prone to corruption than local police, played a key role in dismantling these groups.

As of 2025, authorities have arrested at least 80,000 suspected gang members. While reliable reports cite isolated cases of arbitrary arrests and extrajudicial killings, most detainees are members of criminal groups. As a result, El Salvador’s homicide rate has dropped from one of the world’s highest to the lowest in the Americas, after Canada. Extortion and violent crime have largely subsided, though petty crime persists. The risk of indiscriminate armed attacks has also significantly decreased, with the last reported incident in March 2022.

The security risk rating for border areas between Armenia and Azerbaijan was lowered from extreme to high, reflecting a stabilisation in direct conflict risks over the past year.

Efforts to normalise relations have continued since Azerbaijan’s military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh in September 2023. Both countries are faced with the need for agreements over issues ranging from border demarcation to the so-called Zangezur Corridor, which itself poses a latent risk of driving a re-escalation in bilateral tensions. 

While the downgrade acknowledges the end of direct military conflict, ceasefire violations remain a concern. Both sides continue to report incidents along the border, highlighting ongoing security risks for travel in these areas.

Russia’s security risk rating has been lowered from high to moderate, reflecting a relative stabilisation of domestic security risks since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. There have been no major challenges to government control since Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin’s failed advance on Moscow in June 2023 and his subsequent death. Additionally, 2024 has seen no sustained anti-government protests related to the Ukraine conflict or other issues.

However, the war continues to strain Russia’s economy, and longer-term risks to security and political stability remain. Western travellers still face heightened risks due to the conflict, while incidents like the March 2024 Crocus City Hall terrorist attack highlight ongoing risks from Islamist militant groups.

Border areas with Ukraine remain high risk.

Serbia’s security risk rating has been raised from low to moderate due to ongoing anti-government protests in multiple cities. Demonstrations have occurred regularly over the past 12–18 months, driven by mass shootings in May 2023, alleged electoral irregularities in the 2023 elections, and, more recently, public outrage over the fatal roof collapse at Novi Sad Train Station on 1st November 2024.

The extreme security risk zone was extended to Ukraine’s north-eastern border areas with Russia owing to the intensification of fighting in the region, which also expanded to Russia’s Kursk region in August. Cross-border fighting, as well as continued drone, missile and glide bomb attacks along Ukraine’s north-eastern border and other areas close to the occupied territories, continue to pose elevated conflict-related risks compared to areas further away from frontline fighting. The rest of Ukraine is still rated as high.

Lebanon’s security risk rating was raised from moderate to high, driven by the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iranian-backed militant groups, including Hezbollah. 

Israel’s airstrikes on Lebanon, particularly in Beirut, followed by a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, occurred despite a 60-day ceasefire, highlighting a worsening security situation. Further instability is also expected due to the political vacuum and militant activity following the overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on 8 December 2024.

Lebanon’s medical infrastructure was heavily targeted during the Israeli airstrike campaign that began in September 2024. Reports indicate that throughout the course of the conflict, one in ten hospitals were directly affected. Moreover, the casualties resulting from the fighting have overwhelmed medical facilities, with the attack on 17-18 September involving walkie-talkie and pager devices, which led to a significant surge in the demand for blood at medical centres, serving as a stark example of this strain. As Lebanon’s medical infrastructure, services, and staff continue to be strained, the medical risk rating has fallen from good to moderate over the course of the last year.