What's happening: Localised escalation in South Sudan
Intra-state conflict driven by political, economic, and ethno-tribal tensions has defined South Sudan throughout the country's short history. However, recent conflict developments in Upper Nile state mark a localised escalation exerting further pressure on the fragile power-sharing agreement agreed in 2018.
A series of confrontations between government forces and a non-state armed group called the White Army, which is ethnically aligned to the opposition SPLM-IO party, culminated in the group declaring the capture of Nasir town from the South Sudan People's Defence Forces (SSPDF) on 4 March. In an attempt to de-escalate the situation and support the extraction of SSPDF personnel, a United Nations helicopter attempting to conduct an evacuation from Nasir on 7 March came under fire. Although UN sources confirmed the helicopter landed safely in Malakal, multiple casualties have been reported, including a SSPDF General and UNMISS crew member.
Simultaneously, political tensions in the capital Juba have escalated. Most likely at the direction of President Salva Kiir, a coordinated series of mobilisations and arrests across Juba on 5 March saw elements of the SSPDF temporarily encircle Vice President Riek Machar’s private residence while the National Security Service (NSS) proceeded to detain several politically aligned ministers, including the petroleum minister Puot Kang Chol and deputy head of the army. Although no arrest of Machar was reportedly conducted and a number of the officials were later released, the NSS has announced that arrests will continue in line with conflict developments. The recent deployment of the Uganda People’s Defence Forces (UPDF) within Juba is likely to further increase political tensions, who have openly declared their allegiance to Salva Kiir.
Further clashes and security deteriorations in up-country areas are likely to precipitate further political tensions in Juba over perceptions that SPLM-IO officials are orchestrating conflict activity. Security and political conditions in South Sudan are likely to remain tense with a heightened degree of unpredictably, further increasing the pressure placed on the Revitalised Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (R-ARCSS) signed in 2018. A further destabilisation in the power-sharing arrangement could result in a sudden deterioration of the security and operational risk environment within Juba and instability across the wider country as armed hostilities along ethnic fault lines escalate, in particular in Upper Nile state, Western Equatoria and Western Bahr el Ghazal. It is likely a combination of these security risks which prompted the US State Department to order non-emergency US government staff to leave South Sudan on 8 March.
However, underscored by the extraordinary summit convened by the Inter-governmental Authority on Development (IGAD) scheduled for 12 March, mediation efforts by several international agencies, prominently the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) and African Union Mission in South Sudan (AUMISS) continue to exert a stabilising influence on the situation.
Organisations and personnel currently operating in South Sudan should consider the following advice:
- Closely monitor developments regarding the security situation in up-country areas and further political tensions in Juba.
- Consider temporarily deferring all non-essential travel to South Sudan owing to the risk of a rapid deterioration of the security situation
- Due to the heightened tensions and levels of unpredictably, organisations should reconfirm the viability of evacuation contingencies and options.
- Organisations should ensure that in-country personnel have access to a robust and resilient local assistance network (logistical, security and medical).
If you require further information or advice, Healix International clients can contact gsoc@healix.com.