South Pacific cyclone season outlook
Tropical cyclone activity elevates operational and security risks across the South Pacific basin each year between 1 November and 30 April.
The 2023-24 South Pacific cyclone season was notably below-average. The initial outlook by the meteorological agencies indicated that the 2023-24 season would experience a higher-than-average activity. They predicted that between eight and 14 cyclones would form within the basin compared to an average of around seven. At least five of these systems would increase to a Category 3, 4 or 5. However, during the season, only two systems reached Category 3 or higher: Cyclones Lola and Mal.
What is the outlook for the 2024-25 South Pacific Tropical Cyclone Season?
Tropical cyclone activity during the 2024-25 season is overall forecasted to experience normal to below-normal activity. Around six to ten tropical cyclones are expected, with nine being the average.
The western basin of the South Pacific is likely to see higher cyclone risks due to the developing La Nina phenomenon, which causes warmer ocean waters to pile up. Island groups that are forecast to be affected include Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, New Caledonia and the Coral Sea region. Smaller impacts are likely in the central and eastern areas of the basin, with eastern Fiji likely seeing normal to reduced cyclone activity. Between three to four severe tropical cyclones (Category 3 or higher) may take place anywhere in the basin.
Proactive strategies for safety and resilience
As we prepare for another tropical cyclone season, organisations are advised to monitor closely and implement proactive risk mitigations to ensure the safety and resilience of their people and operations.
Ahead of the tropical cyclone season
- Review evacuation plans: Ensure actionable evacuation plans are in place, including the temporary scaling down of on-site work and moving both staff and assets.
- Identify evacuation triggers: Establish your company’s risk tolerance and confirm evacuation plans accordingly.
- Establish business continuity plans: This can include the storage of assets, the use of working-from-home procedures, and the protection of work sites.
Preparation for an incoming tropical cyclone
- Monitor developments: Leverage local weather forecasts and reliable metrological sources such as the Fiji Meteorological Service, which will give advance warnings in the event of storm formation.
- Maintain a ‘grab bag’: Staff should pack a grab bag of essential supplies, which allows them to be self-sufficient for 72 hours.
- Confirm emergency response protocols: Ensure employees are aware of internal communications channels for use in emergency situations and local state’s emergency numbers.
In case of an impending cyclone
- Identify a viable shelter: Contact the local authorities for information on official emergency shelters and conduct a security audit on a preferred safe haven for personnel to stand fast in the event of future storms.
- Follow all directives issued by authorities: This includes road closures, mandatory evacuations, and any other directives.
- Anticipate operational disruption: Disruption to power and utilities is possible; alternative power supplies, adequate supplies of water, food and fuel, and back-up communication methods should be in place.
Contact our Global Security Operations Centre for bespoke advice, or help in preparing appropriate evacuation plans to protect your people and assets. Email enquiries@healix.com.
