What’s happening: Post-election tensions and unrest in Mozambique
Tensions in Mozambique remain elevated following the 9 October general election. This was punctuated by a general shutdown and election-related unrest in Maputo on 21 October.
The protests were called for by presidential candidate Venâncio Mondlane, who claims the general election was rigged in favour of the ruling FRELIMO party. Mondlane has also denounced the killings of two high-ranking members of the PODEMOS party (which supports Mondlane’s candidacy) in Maputo on 18 October, which Mondlane claims was politically motivated.
The unrest was predominantly centred along Avenida Joaquim Chissano around Praça da OMM. The police forcibly dispersed the gatherings denouncing electoral proceedings and political violence with tear gas and rubber bullets during the morning hours. This included the forcible dispersal of Mondlane’s press conference. Around 16 injuries were reported among the several hundred attendees, including journalists. Similar protests were reported in other urban centres.
Further protests and clashes were later reported outside of central Maputo, but the situation appears to have stabilised by 22 October. However, Mondlane indicated this was only the first of four stages for protest activity, with further protests called for 24 and 25 October to coincide with the expected release of election results.
Security risks remain elevated ahead of the expected release of general election results and further protest activity on 24 and 25 October
The countrywide trend remains stable but is liable to deteriorate at short notice in the event of widespread and sustained unrest. Recent precedent during the 2023 municipal elections suggests the risk of sporadic unrest could persist countrywide for one to two months.
A key thing to watch when assessing the prospects of further unrest and a longer-term deterioration is announcements by Mondlane in the wake of a highly likely FRELIMO victory.
With the support of the PODEMOS party and his personal popularity, Mondlane appears to have surpassed RENAMO as the country's most influential opposition force. By taking advantage of persistent frustrations with the electoral process and concerns over political violence, Mondlane is highly unlikely to retract on his claims of election rigging and political persecution in the short term. Planned national strike action and protest activity on 24 and 25 October, which will coincide with the expected announcement of election results, are likely to be well-heeded by Mondlane’s supporters as part of the second of four phases. Despite Mondlane’s call for peaceful protests, there is an elevated risk of associated unrest and a longer-term deterioration in the countrywide security risk environment, particularly if clashes escalate due to a more forcible police response.
Advice for organisations and personnel operating in-country
Despite the elevated security risks, travel to Mozambique is currently permissible during the post-election period. This includes travel to major urban centres visited more frequently by foreign nationals, such as Maputo, Nampula and Beira.
However, it is highly recommended to update crisis management and travel plans to account for the elevated risk of unrest and heightened police presence countrywide.
Bypass any election-related gatherings and demonstrations due to the elevated risk of unrest and likely disruption, and in the event of clashes, vacate the affected area immediately and seek secure shelter until the situation stabilises.
