Bangladesh will hold elections for the lower house – the Jatiya Sangsad – and a constitutional referendum on the July Charter on 12 February.

This is a significant moment for the country, marking the first democratic transition of power since the July 2024 Revolution, which led to former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s removal.

The vote takes place against a backdrop of heightened unrest, political and religious violence, and strained relations with India – factors that contribute to Bangladesh’s high security risk rating, as assessed by Healix. With Hasina’s Awami League (AL) suspended, the election will be contested by former opposition parties and new groups that emerged after the July Revolution.

Political parties and candidates

Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP)

Prominent figures: Tarique Rahman, Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir
Ideology: Centre-right
Last election result: None (boycotted)
Description: One of Bangladesh’s two historically largest parties (the other being AL). Last in power in 2006, then served as the main opposition to AL.

Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (JI)

Prominent figures: Shafiqur Rahman, Mia Golam Parwar
Ideology: Right-wing
Last election result: None (banned)
Description: Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party. Banned by the Supreme Court in 2024, reinstated by the interim government in 2025. Controversially opposed independence and supported Pakistan in the 1971 Liberation War.

National Citizen Party (NCP)

Prominent figures: Nahid Islam, Akhter Hossen
Ideology: Unclear
Last election result: None (new party)
Description: Formed by student leaders of the July Revolution, including Nahid Islam. Ideology remains unclear.

Electoral risks

Unrest

Unrest risks are extreme. Protests occur frequently, many of which are student led, and the security forces lack the intent to stop them out of fear of triggering unrest. At the same time, incidents of vandalism and arson have occurred with little fear of consequences. Expect large, disruptive gatherings during the election period. Rioting is likely if major parties allege irregularities.

Political violence and terrorism

Violence against political figures has risen sharply since December 2025. The most notable case was the assassination of youth activist Osman Hadi, who was shot in Dhaka on 12 December and died in hospital in Singapore on 18 December. On 22 December, unidentified attackers shot a leader of the NCP party in Khulna.

Supporters of the suspended Awami League have also been targeted. Rioters have attacked AL landmarks, including the former home of Sheikh Mujibur Rahman, several times since the July Revolution. We expect more incidents of serious, possibly fatal, political violence during the election period.

Societal and cultural issues

Anti-Indian and anti-Hindu violence has grown since the July Revolution, with a sharp rise in December 2025 after Osman Hadi’s death. Riots broke out when news of his passing spread, and many supporters blamed India for the assassination.

Mobs attacked media offices, including Prothom Alo and Daily Star in Dhaka, accusing them of pro-India bias. Protesters also tried to storm Indian consular facilities in Chattogram and Rajshahi. In Mymensingh district, a Hindu man was reportedly killed on 18 December.

Relations with India – already poor since August 2024 – are now at their lowest point. Many Bangladeshis believe Delhi interferes in domestic politics, fuelled by reports that India offered Sheikh Hasina refuge after her ouster. This sentiment has led to growing hostility towards Hindu communities, who are often linked to India because of their faith.

Navigating business in the election climate

Unrest and cultural tensions should be monitored closely over the next two to three months. The security environment is likely to worsen during the election period, with a high risk of disruption and potentially fatal violence. Expect heavy security presence, official restrictions and delays.

Advice

Defer non-essential travel to Bangladesh between 6 and 19 February due to the risk of dangerous and disruptive unrest.
Personnel with profiles that put them at greater risk should consider deferring all travel to Bangladesh until at least 19 February.
Closely monitor electoral developments in the lead up to the elections and monitor reliable news sources.
Download Healix’s Travel Oracle App and add ‘Bangladesh’ to the ‘watchlist’ to receive country-related alerts.
Remain neutral in conversations related to local politics.
Identify flashpoint locations in case of protest activity and bypass all gatherings as a basic security precaution.
For businesses, review communications plans to ensure continuity during the election period.