Protests began in Iran on 28 December 2025 amid worsening economic conditions and a deprecation of the Iranian rial.

The demonstrations were initially triggered by shopkeepers after the currency depreciated to around 1.4 million rial to the US dollar. Protest activity significantly decreased after its peak on 8 and 9 January due to a violent government response. The countrywide internet shutdown also contributed to the quelling of the protests as it limited the flow of information. The Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) estimates the death toll from the government’s crackdown at 7,015, of which 6,508 individuals were labelled as protesters. Iranian officials continue to only acknowledge 3,000 deaths. The civil unrest subsided by 14 January, though mass arrests continued in the aftermath of the civil unrest period.

United States threatens direct intervention

President Trump initially threatened direct intervention against Iran in January, first linking it to the Iranian government’s violent response, before shifting focus to Iran’s nuclear programme. Since mid-January, the US has continued its significant military build-up in the Middle East, believed to be the largest since 2003. As of 26 February, the US is still expanding its military presence across the Middle East and Europe in preparation for a potentially prolonged kinetic campaign, deploying guided missile destroyers, fighter aircraft, aerial refuelling capabilities, and enhanced air defence systems.

Peace talks and negotiations ongoing

The US and Iran have held three rounds of indirect talks in 2026: the initial in Oman on 6 February, and the subsequent two rounds in Switzerland on 16 and 26 February. In previous rounds, the US sought to address Iran’s nuclear programme, ballistic missile programme, and regional proxy network; however, Iranian officials have consistently refused to discuss the latter two issues. The next session of the third round of talks is scheduled for 18h00 (local time) today. Both sessions held earlier today (26 February) were described as proceeding in a “positive atmosphere”.

The upcoming session will likely be seen as a definitive moment in negotiations for both Iranian and US officials. In the Middle East, the US military build-up remains robust, and numerous international embassy warnings and evacuation notices persist. However, two key indicators of an imminent US strike remain absent - these include a withdrawal of US embassy staff from Gulf countries as well as the closure of regional or Iranian airspace. We assess a 24-48-hour window between a US order to withdraw non-essential embassy personnel from the Gulf and the initiation of military action. The timeframe between airspace closures and an attack is assessed to be shorter.

The three potential scenarios ahead of the resumption of talks are as follows:

Talks are successful, with an announcement of a deal

Omani mediators announce that a deal has been reached, though its specifics are not immediately disclosed. Aware of the high stakes created by the substantial US military build-up, Iranian officials accept most of the US’s demands, offering significant concessions on their nuclear programme in exchange for sanctions relief or commitments of future relief. Tensions between the two countries ease somewhat but remain elevated due to mistrust. While military action is deferred in the immediate term, there remains a credible risk of renewed conflict in the longer term. Minor to moderate withdrawal of the additional US military forces from the Middle East is likely in this scenario.

Talks are seen as somewhat successful but no announcement of a deal; further talks likely before deadline

The US and Iran achieve a limited breakthrough today but conclude that another round of talks, likely in the coming days, will be needed to finalise details concerning Iran’s nuclear programme. Both sides continue favouring diplomacy over military action, though each maintains leverage by signalling readiness for force - the US through its military posture, and Iran through the threat of strong retaliation. In the lead-up to Trump’s ten to 15-day deadline for a deal set on 19 February, tensions remain high. Both sides prioritise negotiating the nuclear programme and are likely to set aside discussions on Iran’s ballistic missile programme and regional proxy network in the immediate term. The current level of US military presence in the Middle East remains in this scenario.

Talks are unsuccessful; kinetic action likely

The upcoming session fails to produce outcomes acceptable to the US, leading to the US’s shift from prioritising diplomacy to pursuing military action. This would either entail a contained or uncontained operation which could develop as follows:

A more contained US operation:
The US conducts limited strikes with the aim of returning to indirect talks thereafter. These strikes would likely target Iranian critical infrastructure, such as nuclear facilities, military sites including air defence and radar systems, and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) assets. Iran, compelled to respond symbolically as seen in June 2025, targets US regional installations. Airspace closures in the region take place but are temporary, with international flight operations resuming relatively quickly as relative stability returns.
A more forceful US operation:
The US targets not only critical infrastructure and IRGC sites but also senior government and military figures. Iran responds with a less constrained retaliation, potentially striking multiple US installations in the region and possibly involving proxy groups in Iraq, Yemen, and (less likely) Lebanon. The risk of miscalculation by either side increases substantially. Airspace closures in the region last longer, as external conflict risks are more elevated.

Advice to businesses and travellers in the region

Maintain flexible itineraries if transiting through the region as sudden airspace closures cannot be ruled out. Liaise with airline staff directly for up-to-date information regarding potential amendments to flights.
Closely monitor relevant embassy notices.
Ensure business continuity plans and evacuation protocols, where appropriate, are up to date.
Establish escalation triggers that align with your organisation’s risk appetite.
Monitor relevant developments from reliable international and domestic media sources.
Liaise with the Healix GSOC where assistance requests are necessary; Healix Sentinel clients should subscribe to rolling situation reports for the latest updates.