Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called for a snap general election to take place on 8 February.

Takaichi likely called for the election due to consistently strong approval ratings since becoming prime minister in October 2025. The election will heavily focus on Takaichi’s personal popularity, the cost of living due to inflationary pressures, expansionary fiscal policy, immigration policy, and foreign policy issues.

The two largest parties, Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDPJ), are almost certain to gain the most votes in the coming election. However, an increasingly dynamic political environment and the speed with which the election was called have created uncertainty over political alignment between the parties. The National Diet has historically been dominated by the LDP; however, recent corruption scandals and perceptions of poor leadership have led to a minority government in both houses. The election represents a key test to see whether Takaichi’s popularity can re-attract voters to the LDP and give the party a stronger mandate.

We assess that the most likely outcome is the LDP winning a plurality of the vote, with the Japan Innovation Party (JIP) then bolstering the coalition into a majority government.

Electoral risks assessed to be minimal

There are minimal electoral risks for Japan, due to the country’s stable political institutions and lack of transitional risks.

The primary risks are associated with temporary and minor operational disruption consistent with previous election campaigns. Non-essential businesses may restrict opening hours or temporarily suspend operations during the voting period between 07h00 and 20h00 (all times local). Heightened security and localised disruption are liable to feature at some polling stations in busier areas. Additionally, a shuttle scheme for elderly constituents is common in Japan and could induce minor travel disruption.

The main security risk is linked to recent extreme winter weather. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has forecast high snowfall across large parts of the country during the election period. The election impact is likely to be two-fold and include disruption to campaigning and changing voter turnout. Risks related to political violence, far-right extremism and protest activity are relatively low and unlikely to impact personnel during the election period.

Advice for businesses and travellers in Japan

Normal travel to Japan can continue during the election period. However, ensure plans on election day account for the heightened risk of travel and operational disruption, as non-essential businesses could close or operate with reduced hours.
Download Healix’s Travel Oracle App and add ‘Japan’ to the ‘watchlist’ to receive country-related alerts.
Inform personnel of voting times and the ongoing election campaign more broadly.
Anticipate localised disruption and heightened security in the vicinity of some polling stations, electoral offices and government buildings on 8th February.
Refer to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) website for the latest weather forecasts and warnings during the election period. Be prepared to adapt travel plans to account for severe weather conditions.