On 14 December, a terrorist attack occurred at Sydney’s Bondi Beach during the ‘Chanukah by the Sea 2025’ event, leaving 16 dead and dozens injured.

Two gunmen opened fire from a bridge near Bondi Park Playground along Campbell Parade at approximately 18:45 local time. New South Wales Police reportedly responded within ten minutes and neutralised the attackers, who police have determined to be father and son.

At least 16 fatalities have been recorded, including one of the shooters, and another 42 people were wounded, including two police officers. Improvised explosive devices were discovered in a nearby vehicle linked to one of the attackers.

Authorities declared the attack an act of terrorism targeting the Jewish community. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese condemned the attack as an “act of evil antisemitism” and called for national unity. He convened an emergency meeting of the National Security Committee shortly after the incident. The Director-General of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (ASIO), Mike Burgess, announced that Australia’s National Terrorism Threat Level remains at ‘probable’ - the middle tier on a five-level scale - meaning there is a greater than 50% chance of an onshore attack or attack planning in the next twelve months.

Further NSW Police investigations have revealed potential links with Islamic State (IS). The police announced that early indications suggest the attack was inspired by IS; two IS flags were discovered in the vehicle, and the gunmen pledged their allegiance to the group. The two perpetrators travelled to the southern Philippines weeks prior to the attack, a region with known Islamist militant activity. Unconfirmed reports suggest the pair received training for the attack, though this has been denied by the Filipino authorities. The surviving gunman faces 59 charges, including 15 counts of murder.

Why this attack is significant

The selection of the target reflects clear antisemitic intent. The perpetrators almost certainly targeted the event to cause mass casualties. Bondi Beach is a high-density soft target and an Australian national symbol. The attack was premeditated: corroborated video footage and official statements confirm the gunmen were heavily armed, and the discovery of improvised explosive devices supports the assessment of a well-planned terrorist attack. It remains unclear whether the attack was motivated by other ideological goals at time of writing, but emerging findings from the police investigation are consistent with IS-inspired Islamist extremism goals. Despite Australia’s strict gun laws, one of the perpetrators held a firearms licence and was a member of a gun club; it appears the weapons were acquired legally.

While Australia’s terrorism risk level remains low overall by Healix assessment, antisemitic incidents have increased in the past two years following the 7 October attacks in Israel.

Subsequent Israeli military operations in Gaza have divided global opinion and driven a rise in antisemitic violence worldwide, including in Australia. ASIO described antisemitism as its top priority regarding threats to life earlier this year. The country expelled the Iranian Ambassador and suspended operations at the Embassy of Tehran in August after accusing Iran of covertly orchestrating antisemitic attacks in Melbourne and Sydney. ASIO could raise the threat level beyond ‘probable’ if intelligence suggests the Bondi attack was not isolated or if there is a credible risk of copycat attacks.

Impact on social cohesion and security

The attack further elevates cohesion risks in Australia. Associated protest activity is highly likely, though most demonstrations should remain peaceful. However, intimidation, harassment and clashes have been reported at recent protests. Anti-immigration rhetoric has grown, reflected in recent ‘March for Australia’ mobilisations. Pro-Palestinian protests occur almost weekly, and clashes have taken place between pro-Israel and pro-Palestinian demonstrators and police. There is a credible risk that social cohesion will decline further following the attack.

Higher risks exist for Jewish and Muslim communities given the possibility of targeted reprisal attacks at places of worship, cultural centres and events. NSW Police Commissioner Mal Lanyon warned against “retribution” during a press conference on 14 December. The government will face increased pressure over firearms regulations, its response to rising antisemitism and whether adequate protections were in place for the Jewish community.

Residual disruption and a visible police presence are almost certain to persist for at least the coming week while investigations continue. NSW Police announced the crime scene was lifted on 18 December; major disruption linked to the investigations is now unlikely, though the Queen Elizabeth Drive carpark and south-bound lanes of Campbell Parade will remain closed until further notice. Funerals for the victims commenced on 17 December, which alongside commemorative gatherings for the victims, are expected to cause near-term localised disruption around Bondi Beach. Heightened security is almost certain around key places of interest, including places of worship, funeral proceedings for the victims, transport hubs and major locations such as the Sydney Opera House.

How rare is this?

The incident is assessed as highly divergent given terrorist attacks in Australia are extremely rare. While ASIO designates a terrorist attack as ‘probable’, attacks of this scale are highly uncommon, especially given Australia’s strong counter-terrorism capabilities.

The Bondi attack is Australia’s deadliest mass shooting since the 1996 Port Arthur massacre, which prompted strict gun laws. It is also the second major attack near Bondi Beach in two years, following the Bondi Junction stabbing attack in April 2024 - however, that attack was inconsistent with a terrorist incident given the absence of an apparent ideological motivation.

An increase in extremism has been observed in recent years, especially amid the Israel-Gaza conflict, though motivations are increasingly complex as drivers of radicalisation intersect. Most incidents involve lone-wolf attackers, and it remains unclear whether the Bondi gunmen acted alone or with support from a terrorist network. Lone-wolf style attacks using unsophisticated weapons remain the most likely terrorist scenario in Australia.

This update is based on Healix’s Post-Incident Report, prepared for Sentinel Intelligence clients and issued within 24 hours of the Bondi Beach attack. Details reflect information available at the time and may change as investigations progress. For an up-to-date assessment, please contact us at enquiries@healix.com