What’s happening: The United States’ bid for Greenland

The announcement followed President Trump’s meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum on 21 January 2026. It comes against a backdrop of escalating rhetoric regarding US ambitions to acquire Greenland, a self-governing Danish territory, since early January. 

During this period, Trump temporarily threatened a 10% tariff on Denmark and seven other European countries for not supporting his bid to acquire Greenland, which in turn led European countries to deploy troops for a military exercise in Greenland and consider retaliating with a “trade bazooka”. 

Although the details of the emerging framework remain vague, reliable reporting suggests that it could grant the US sovereignty over areas where it constructs military bases and secure privileged access to Greenland’s mineral resources. 

Power play over Greenland tests alliance unity

The crisis has a remote chance of escalating to direct military confrontation despite White House's statements alluding that the “US military is always an option”. 

Recent developments underscore that Greenland is now a top US national security priority, yet much of the aggressive signalling is part of Trump’s negotiating tactics, leveraging the possibility of kinetic action to bargain from a position of strength and secure more favourable terms. 

However, the prospect of attacking a territory controlled by a NATO ally undermines the very foundations of the alliance and raises concerns in European capitals, given their recent reliance on US security guarantees. The apprehension reflects a broader concern that the US operation in Venezuela was not a one-off event but part of a wider US ambition to assert control and acquire new territory in its hemisphere under the “Donroe Doctrine.” The Trump Administration has consistently framed Greenland’s acquisition as necessary to counter growing Russian and Chinese influence, and it is likely to continue using economic, diplomatic and military coercion to acquire the island.

Advice for businesses operating in the region

• Anticipate further volatility as the US continues to pressure over Greenland’s acquisition and as European governments respond through countermeasures. Develop scenario-based responses that account for a range of potential outcomes, from protracted negotiations to abrupt imposition of tariffs.
• Conduct a comprehensive assessment of supply‑chain resilience, particularly for operations vulnerable to the frictions, most notably those linked to Denmark and the broader US - Europe trade environment.
• Ensure continuity plans account for rising military activity in Greenland, in the form of NATO exercises, potential increased US deployment in Pituffik Space Base and Danish/European posturing.
• Monitor reliable outlets and Healix Sentinel Intelligence Portal for any escalation despite the minimal likelihood of confrontation.