Welcome to Risk Radar 2025

Regional Analysis

The global landscape in 2025 presents a multifaceted array of risks that challenge businesses and security professionals alike.

Regional intelligence experts from our in-house teams have analysed these evolving risks, providing valuable insights. 

In Africa, the primary concerns remain health crises, governance issues, and extreme weather. The Americas face a volatile mix of political polarisation, governance challenges, and extremism. Asia Pacific continues to grapple with disease outbreaks, severe weather, and political shifts. Europe and the CIS are influenced by ongoing conflict, governance upheavals, and rising extremism. Meanwhile, the Middle East and North Africa region sees persistent governance struggles, political divisions, and armed conflicts. 

Read on for preview insights and download the full report to explore the in-depth regional analysis and actionable strategies to mitigate risks in 2025.

Africa

We asked risk and security managers to identify Africa’s top risks for the next twelve months: 

• 19%

  disease
• 17%

  governance
• 14%

  extreme weather

What do we explore?

• Health risks: The uneven control of disease outbreaks, driven by limited medical resources and varying national responses, with countries like Rwanda demonstrating effective measures against the Marburg virus, while the DRC struggles with the ongoing mpox outbreaks.
• Governance challenges: Political instability, corruption, and weak regulation impact business operations, particularly in countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and South Sudan, where governance breakdowns hinder long-term planning.
• Extreme weather: The growing impact of climate change, from floods in East Africa (Kenya, Somalia) to droughts in Southern Africa (Zambia, Zimbabwe), affecting infrastructure, agriculture, and supply chains.

Americas

We asked risk and security managers to identify America's top risks for the next twelve months:

• 16%

  politics
• 16%

  governance
• 15%

  extremism

What do we explore?

• Political polarisation: The divisive 2024 US presidential election will reverberate across the region. Ecuador faces tensions ahead of its February 2025 election. Even Canada, long seen as stable, braces for a polarising Trudeau-Poilievre contest.
• Governance risks: Judicial instability, like Mexico’s reform crisis, and widespread corruption fuel criminal activity, contributing to high homicide rates, especially in Venezuela, Colombia, and Brazil.
• Extremism risks: Hate crimes are rising in North America. Middle East tensions have increased the risk of religiously motivated attacks, including a foiled plot in Oklahoma City. In South America, stalled peace talks in Colombia’s Amazon fuel fears of militant violence.

Asia Pacific

We asked risk and security managers to identify Asia Pacific's top risks for the next twelve months:

• 15%

  disease
• 15%

  extreme weather
• 15%

  politics and governance

What do we explore?

• Health risks: Disease outbreaks remain a major concern, with India, Indonesia, and Bangladesh among countries at high risk. Vector-borne diseases like dengue and chikungunya have become year-round threats in South Asia, requiring continuous disease-prevention efforts.
• Extreme weather: The region faces growing risks from extreme weather, with widespread flooding in countries like Bangladesh, India, and Vietnam, often caused by tropical storms or cyclones. 
• Political instability: A wave of elections and leadership changes in countries like Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and Taiwan was accompanied by rising public unrest and protests in places like Pakistan and Papua New Guinea, raising concerns over political stability in the region.

Europe and CIS

We asked risk and security managers to identify Europe and CIS' top risks for the next twelve months:

• 17%

  conflict
• 16%

  governance and politics
• 14%

  extremism

What do we explore?

• Ongoing conflict: The Ukraine conflict remains in a state of attrition, with incremental Russian gains along the eastern frontline. Both sides are positioning for potential negotiations in 2025, while the broader East-West divide and sanctions continue to shape the political risk environment.
• Political instability: Large-scale protests erupted across Europe in 2024, including anti-far-right demonstrations in France and Germany. Perceived democratic backsliding in Georgia and Slovakia fuelled anti-government unrest, while Spain saw protests over its Amnesty Law.
• Extremism: The Middle East conflict has sparked widespread protests in Europe, with extremist groups, like IS, targeting Western Europe. Terrorist incidents, including lone-actor attacks in Germany, highlight the growing extremism risk for businesses and travellers.

Middle East and North Africa

We asked risk and security managers to identify Middle East and North Africa's top risks for the next twelve months:

• 17%

  governance
• 15%

  politics
• 15%

  conflict

What do we explore?

• Governance: Tunisia and Algeria’s 2024 re-elections of incumbent, authoritarian-leaning presidents highlight democratic backsliding. Meanwhile, governance in Gaza and the West Bank remains a contentious issue.
• Politics: Political rifts, fuelled by the Israel-Hamas conflict, continue to destabilise the region. Gulf states have shifted to a more neutral stance toward Iran, while Qatar’s recent withdrawal from ceasefire talks with Israel is likely temporary.
• Conflict: The Israel-Hamas conflict spills over into neighbouring regions, with Israeli incursions into southern Lebanon, airspace closures, and escalating clashes along Turkey's borders with Syria and Iraq. Tensions in Yemen and Libya persist, and the conflict with Iran remains a critical driver of instability.