Pager detonations and airstrikes signal escalation in Israel-Hezbollah conflict

At approximately 15h30 (local time), the detonations began, with reports suggesting that the blasts continued for at least 30 minutes after the initial wave. These explosions were concentrated around the southern border with Israel, southern Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley, areas known to be Hezbollah strongholds. Additional explosions were also reported in Sitt Zaynab, Syria. Among the nearly 1,500 wounded was Mojtaba Amani, the Iranian Ambassador to Lebanon.

The explosions caused widespread panic in the southern suburbs of Beirut, overwhelming local medical facilities as they struggled to cope with the influx of patients. Although the specifics are unclear, it is highly likely the devices were weaponised by Israeli forces to target Hezbollah members.

A second wave of attacks on 18 September left at least 20 dead in Lebanon. These explosions targeted solar energy systems, walkie-talkies, and fingerprint scanning devices. Sources reveal that Hezbollah had purchased the handheld radios, like the pagers, about five months ago. The blasts similarly occurred in the southern suburbs of Beirut, southern Lebanon, and the Bekaa Valley. A Reuters investigation found that the exploded devices had the labels ‘ICOM’ and ‘Made in Japan,’ suggesting they were different in origin from the pagers, which had been manufactured in Hungary with affiliation to the Taiwanese firm Gold Apollo. The detonated walkie-talkies were reportedly exported to the Middle East from 2004 to 2014 and have not been shipped since then. Investigations are continuing into both attacks. At the time of writing, the death toll stands at 32.

An uptick in cross-border airstrikes followed last week’s device explosions

Targeted airstrikes were carried out in the Dahieh suburb of Beirut on 20 September. The strike hit a residential building in the suburb and assassinated Ibrahim Aqil, a senior Hezbollah commander. At least 14 people were killed and 66 others injured in the attack. The Israeli Air Force (IAF) continued to conduct large-scale airstrikes into Lebanon on 21 and 22 September, targeting thousands of Hezbollah militant infrastructure. More targeted strikes from the IAF followed on 23 September when the IAF targeted a building in Beirut which was believed to house senior Hezbollah commander Ali Karaki and fifteen Radwan militants. As of 24 September, Karaki’s assassination attempt was unsuccessful.

Hezbollah retaliated by firing rockets into northern Israel, targeting the Rafael Advanced Defence Systems headquarters in Haifa on 21 and 22 September. The Iranian-backed Islamic Resistance in Iraq militant group began their ‘fourth phase’ of retaliation against Israel, by firing four missile and drone attacks into northern Israeli territory on 22 September. By 12h00 (local time) on 24 September Hezbollah has launched over 100 rockets into northern Israel.

Amid ongoing cross-border attacks, the IDF issued evacuation warnings on 23 and 24 September, advising Lebanese civilians to move away from Hezbollah buildings, signalling that cross-border strikes will continue.

What does this mean for the future of the conflict

The tech- and intel-enabled strikes have further ‘crossed’ Hezbollah’s stated threshold for retaliatory action, making an escalation in the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah highly likely in the coming weeks. From observed military movements, we assess that Israel is likely to initiate the escalation. It is credible the tech strikes were intended as a warning to Iran and its allies, demonstrating Israeli capabilities to deter further conflict escalation. However, these strikes will not help the Israeli government achieve its stated objective of returning northern residents to their homes. Instead, they increase the likelihood of an imminent confrontation along the Lebanese border.

The IDF’s current resources are insufficient to sustain major operations on both the Gaza and northern fronts simultaneously. A large-scale withdrawal from Gaza and a period of rest for Israeli troops would be necessary before a strategic pivot to the north. However, the past 72 hours have signalled a significant rise in tensions. Hassan Nasrallah’s speech on 19 September confirmed that the strikes in Lebanon and Syria on 17 and 18 September crossed all of Hezbollah’s ‘red lines’. While such rhetoric has been used before by both Israeli and Hezbollah leaders, these pager explosions represent a clear escalation. They also signal that Israel is prepared to follow through on its warnings, indicating a shift in focus from the Gaza Strip to the northern border.

The attacks are likely to have disrupted ceasefire negotiations. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who arrived in Cairo on 17 September to discuss ceasefire and hostage arrangements, was likely unaware of these planned strikes. Although Hezbollah is not directly involved in the current ceasefire talks, the attack on Lebanese soil, as with the assassination of Fuad Shukr on 30 July, is likely to harden Hamas’s stance in negotiations. As a result, the talks are unlikely to conclude in a negotiated ceasefire.

Advice for organisations and personnel operating in the region

• Individuals are encouraged to evacuate from Lebanon owing to the credible risk of armed conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Healix assess the evacuation watch for Lebanon to be ‘Evacuation’ (Level 4) due to the likelihood of an Israeli ground invasion and the ongoing cross-border conflict between Hezbollah and the IDF.
• Remain mindful of the operational status of airports throughout both Israel and Lebanon. Keep in mind that operations at Beirut–Rafic Hariri International Airport (BEY) have the potential to cease at short notice.
• Ensure that a loss-of-communications plan is in place prior to travel and that personnel have access to multiple means of communication.
• Reconfirm third-party provider capabilities for transportation, security, and other logistical support, including international assistance, medical providers, and hotels/accommodation. Note these are changeable depending on the security situation at the time of request. Seek confirmation of capability limitations and activation timelines.
• Identify triggers for escalation and de-escalation. As part of the evacuation planning process, organisations should identify internal triggers in line with the company’s risk tolerance that would signal that the situation is improving or deteriorating enough to warrant a change to their evacuation posture.

To learn of the latest developments on the ground visit our dedicated information hub, updated weekly. For further information or advice, please contact enquiries@healix.com