What’s happening: Islamabad march raises unrest and travel risks

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The march was initially scheduled for 27 September but was postponed due to concerns over security arrangements. Participants intend to march from Peshawar towards Islamabad on 4 October to pressure the government over the continued detention of former Prime Minister Imran Khan.

PTI leaders have ruled out another postponement, and the party’s political committee has approved the decision to proceed. However, reports on 1 October indicate that the PTI is engaging in indirect talks with the government. The march follows weeks of political campaigning and comes amid renewed concerns regarding Khan's health and detention conditions - issues that have continued to resonate strongly with supporters.

Authorities have authorised Section 144 in Punjab through at least 5 October, banning public gatherings of five or more people. Before the original march date, authorities implemented extensive security measures across Islamabad and key access routes from Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Punjab. They positioned more than 2,000 shipping containers at strategic locations, requested additional police personnel from several provinces and introduced emergency arrangements at hospitals and other critical facilities.

Government officials have warned that attempts to enter or occupy the capital will be prevented, while reports over the past week indicate the detention of PTI activists and party leaders ahead of the march.

The march creates a credible risk of confrontation

Unrest risks in Pakistan are high and deteriorating, with the greatest risks concentrated around the capital ahead of and during the 4 October mobilisation. Heightened security measures in Islamabad and Rawalpindi are almost certain to be implemented through at least 5 October. Similar arrangements to what was observed ahead of the original march date should be anticipated. 

While PTI has framed the demonstration as a peaceful political mobilisation, the combination of a high expected turnout, extensive security deployments, and political tensions significantly increases the likelihood of confrontations between protesters and the security forces. 

Road closures, transport disruption, arrests, and the use of crowd-control measures are likely, particularly around entry points to Islamabad and the Red Zone. Should protesters attempt to breach security cordons or establish a prolonged sit-in, the security forces may use live ammunition to try and disperse them. 

Telecommunications and internet outages are possible given precedent from recent protest activity and previous government attempts to suppress dissent. Any outage could affect employee communications, journey monitoring and remote-working arrangements.

While it is possible that the PTI postpones the march again following fruitful talks with the government, its political committee’s decision to move ahead indicates expressed intent.

Outlook

Most likely scenario

The most likely scenario is a confrontation between the protesters and security forces on 4 October that results in unrest. Large-scale protest activity, clashes with the security forces and significant disruption in Islamabad and Rawalpindi are highly likely. 

Indicators of deterioration:

• Attempts to breach security cordons, establish a prolonged sit-in or another type of expansion of the protest movement.
• Forcible dispersion by the security forces, especially if live ammunition is used, as that is a relatively rare form of dispersal in Islamabad.
• Spread of protest activity and unrest to other Pakistani urban centres.
• Localised or countrywide suspension of mobile and internet services.

Indicators of improvement:

• Suspension of the long march by PTI.
• Removal of shipping containers and other barriers to overland travel.
• Credible reporting on improvement to Imran Khan’s health that tempers the intensity of the protest.
• Reduction in security measures and access constraints to/from Islamabad.

Recommended actions

• Strictly bypass the long march and associated gatherings due to the credible risk of violence. 
• Ensure journey management plans are regularly updated and assess the viability of travel, particularly in Islamabad and Rawalpindi. 
• Given the considerable risk of major disruption, reconsider non-essential movement and expect delays. 
• Establish contingency communications and operational planning in case of the suspension of mobile and internet services.

For risk managers: Configure Sentinel to receive ongoing monitoring and reporting on protest activity and unrest risks in Pakistan.

For organisation-specific guidance: Contact the Healix GSOC for tailored assessment and advice.