Japan’s security shift: What a more assertive Tokyo means for the region
Japan is pursuing its most significant security reforms in decades. While these changes are unlikely to create immediate operational impacts, they signal a more assertive Japanese approach to defence, regional security and relations with China. The long-term significance lies less in the reforms themselves and more in what they suggest about Japan's future role in Asia Pacific.
Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi has moved quickly to use her parliamentary supermajority following February's general election victory to advance an ambitious national security agenda.
The administration has committed to revising Article 9 of the post-war constitution, increasing defence spending, reforming Japan’s core security policies, and removing longstanding restrictions on lethal weapons exports - pursuing an increasingly antagonistic relationship with China.
Takaichi's supermajority and personal popularity provide significant political momentum for implementing these reforms.
The central objective of the administration is a “fundamental reinforcement of defence capabilities”. As part of that effort, Takaichi convened an expert panel on national security in April to support revisions to Japan’s National Security Strategy, National Defence Strategy, and the National Defence Buildup Program.
A key element of Takaichi's agenda is revising Article 9 of the Constitution. Conservative lawmakers have long argued that Japan's legal framework should better reflect its existing defence capabilities and growing regional security responsibilities. Article 9 enshrines Japan’s commitment to pacifism and bars it from maintaining a traditional standing army.
Constitutional reform remains a significant hurdle. Any revision would require a two-thirds majority in both houses of the National Diet and approval through a national referendum.
China is increasingly shaping Japan's security agenda
Takaichi has adopted a more confrontational stance towards China than her predecessors, framing much of her security agenda around growing pressure from Beijing.
She has indicated that, in the event of a Chinese incursion into Taiwan, Japan would be willing to respond militarily by classifying such an attack as a "survival-threatening situation". The statement marked a departure from Japan's traditional policy of strategic ambiguity on Taiwan. Takaichi has also visited the controversial Yasukuni Shrine, a longstanding source of tension in Japan-China relations.
Taken together, these moves suggest a greater willingness to link Japan's domestic security reforms to wider regional security challenges.
Maritime friction has also become increasingly routine, with Japanese and Chinese coast guard vessels continuing to operate in contested areas such as the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and the Taiwan Strait.
While these tensions have not significantly altered the immediate security outlook, they are increasingly influencing economic activity, travel patterns and public sentiment between the two countries. Travel from Japan to China reportedly fell by an estimated 90% following a rise in cancellations and reduced flight capacity. A concurrent drop in Chinese visitors to Japan followed the Chinese government's advice to avoid travel.
Institutional resilience is likely to limit disruption
There are elevated risks associated with the planned structural changes to Japan’s security and foreign policy; however, robust political institutions constrain these risks.
Political friction is likely to increase
The most significant risk associated with Takaichi's security reform agenda is increased protest activity. Since the 8 February election, political demonstrations have increased across urban centres, driven by both geopolitical events and domestic political issues.
Most protests are likely to remain small, attracting fewer than 100 participants. Larger demonstrations are more likely around notable political events, including the passage of new legislation, significant changes in security policy and visits by foreign leaders.
Social tensions remain manageable
Growing anti-foreigner sentiment remains a concern. There are reports of discrimination through reduced access to services or different pricing schemes for foreigners. However, direct harassment observed during periods of tense relations, including between Tokyo and Beijing, has remained episodic rather than representative of a sustained trend.
Major instability remains unlikely
Political violence and conflict risks are assessed as unlikely and remote, respectively. Strict gun control, a post-war tradition of non-violence and a generally competent security apparatus continue to constrain the risk of political violence.
Similarly, large bilateral trade relations between China and Japan, alongside regional alliance networks, reduce the likelihood of interstate conflict despite growing geopolitical tensions.
What this means
Despite significant planned reforms to Japan's security and defence policy, the country's robust institutions, low levels of political violence and strong security apparatus mean that major and persistent operational disruption remains unlikely.
Organisations operating in Japan should continue to monitor protest activity and key policy milestones, but the overall security outlook remains stable.
