What you need to know about Nepal’s election
Nepal will hold elections for its House of Representatives on 5 March. It is the first major political test since the Gen Z protests of 2025 and the fall of the previous government.
The mixed electoral system will see 165 seats elected via first-past-the post (FPTP), while the remaining 110 seats will be elected from a closed-list proportional representation (PR). Nepal is now under an interim government led by Prime Minister Sushila Karki, appointed after the protests forced the resignation of former Prime Minister KP Sharma Oli. The youth-led unrest began after a countrywide social media ban escalated into widespread anti-corruption protests that resulted in at least 76 fatalities.
Nearly 80,000 Nepalese Army personnel are reported to be deployed before the vote. Well-established political parties, including the Nepali Congress and the Communist Party of Nepal-United Marxist Leninist (CPN-UML), will compete for seats against the new movements that rose from the protests.
Who's in the running? Primary political parties and candidates
Electoral risks
Unrest risks remain high
Unrest risks remain high in Nepal, although the trend has stabilised in recent weeks. Protestors - most falling under the Gen Z demographic - have shown they can organise unruly and sometimes violent rallies, with incidents of arson and vandalism targeting the residences of political office holders.
Under the Integrated Security Plan (2026), four security agencies including the Nepali Army have been deployed countrywide to enforce election security. More than 300,000 security personnel are expected to be mobilised.
We expect to see large election-related gatherings once campaigning starts on 16 February, and a heavy security presence especially in urban centres like Kathmandu. Reports of booth capture or voter fraud could trigger further unrest on election day.
Armed threats likely to be deterred
The September 2025 protests led to prison breaks and the theft of a significant number of firearms. A large number of escaped convicts and looted firearms remain unaccounted for. This has created a credible risk of potential armed booth capture, voter intimidation, and targeted attacks on security forces at the polls.
In response, the Election Commission of Nepal (ECN) has classified 4,614 stations as “highly sensitive” following risk assessments based on threat data, including stations in the Madhesh Province near the India border, hill districts such as Jumla, and urban areas like Lalitpur. To mitigate these risks, specially trained Election Police will be present at polling centres and begin their phased deployment on 10 February.
While the likelihood of localised armed incidents and attempts at coercion around “highly sensitive” polling centres remains elevated, the deployment of security personnel and specially trained Election Police is expected to deter large-scale disruption and limit threats to sporadic incidents.
Political violence in higher-risk areas
Tensions between rival parties and youth factions threaten to disrupt political rallies, with a heightened security presence likely in higher-risk areas such as Dhanusha, Jumla, and Kaski districts. On 20 January, clashes were reported in Jhapa between CPN-UML and RSP supporters, where party leaders Oli and Shah are contesting for the Jhapa-5 seat. Other areas with high-profile candidates, such as Sarlahi, Chitwan, Gorkha and eastern Rolpa, will likely see an increased security presence.
Rise of misinformation
Election campaigning through social media platforms has given rise to misinformation and disinformation campaigns. The combination of the widespread influence of these platforms and the low digital literacy rate, undermines Nepal’s electoral integrity. Civil society groups and the Election Commission, alongside agencies like the Information Integrity Promotion Centre (IIPC) and the Cyber Bureau of Nepal Police, have intensified efforts to combat false narratives, deepfakes, and algorithm-boosted ads. The risk will particularly affect the 915,000 first-time voters, most of whom are from the Gen Z demographic, who are active online and remain vulnerable to digital manipulation. Accusations have surfaced against candidates for buying fake likes to inflate their posts.
Navigating business in the election climate
While unrest risks are assessed as elevated during the lead-up to the elections and the election period, we do not expect the security environment to deteriorate. However, while the deployment of 300,000 security personnel throughout the country will mitigate potential violent unrest, localised clashes, especially in highly sensitive polling stations cannot be ruled out.
Advice for organisations
- Closely monitor electoral developments in the lead up to the elections and monitor reliable news sources.
- Download Healix’s Travel Oracle App and add Nepal to the ‘watchlist’ to receive country-related alerts.
- Remain neutral in conversations related to local politics.
- Identify flashpoint locations in case of protest activity such as political party offices and government buildings.
- Bypass all gatherings as a basic security precaution.
- For businesses, review communications plans to ensure continuity during the election period.
