How risk is changing across the Americas in 2026
The opening weeks of 2026 offered a glimpse of how quickly conditions can change.
Political shock from the US intervention in Venezuela, alongside the security crisis in Guatemala, reminded the world that instability can flare with little warning. Both episodes came from different places, yet they shared a pattern: fragile institutions strained by long term pressure.
That mix – political uncertainty sitting alongside fast moving security events – has become a defining feature across parts of the Americas. Even when tensions ease, the sense of volatility tends to linger.
These early shocks echo the broader picture set out in our latest Risk Radar 2026: Americas report, which highlights how political tension, criminal activity and global pressure points now overlap across the region.
The themes below reflect that wider pattern and show how these forces continue to shape the landscape as 2026 unfolds.
Rising crime risks across the Americas
Organised crime remains a persistent challenge in Latin America and the Caribbean. It shapes daily life, drives local politics and puts heavy pressure on stretched security forces. For most people and organisations, the main risk is not being a direct target. It is the risk of getting caught in the fallout when criminal groups fight each other or clash with the state.
Political instability in the Andean region
The Andean states face growing pressure of their own. Gridlock, public anger and weakened institutions make it harder for governments to deliver reforms or steady their economies. Election periods often heighten this pressure and turn routine political shifts into flashpoints.
The trend is clear: countries in this part of the region are becoming more unpredictable, with short term disruption now a routine part of the political cycle. For organisations relying on stability, this creates planning challenges that go beyond the usual electoral noise.
US policy changes and ICE protests drive regional tension
The Trump Administration’s security first approach is reshaping the region, with tougher border controls, new terrorist designations and military pressure driving tension with regional allies. Its tariffs and rapid policy shifts have unsettled trade ties and raised the chances of diplomatic friction.
Inside the US, protests against ICE have grown as deportations increase, slowing movement at border crossings and adding another layer of disruption. Together, these moves make the Americas more volatile in 2026, as US decisions now carry faster and wider consequences for organisations operating across the region.
What organisations need to plan for in 2026
The Americas region is not in constant crisis, but it is in constant motion. The challenge for organisations is to keep pace. A steady, informed approach works best.
Focus on:
- Regularly reviewing regional and operational risk assessments to identify early warning signs of deteriorating security conditions.
- Prioritising staff training on personal security, crisis response, and communication protocols.
- Defining clear organisational risk tolerance levels and escalation thresholds.
- Ensuring intelligence functions maintain continuous monitoring of geopolitical, criminal, and regulatory developments.
In a region where the ground moves often, preparation is less about predicting each turn and more about responding with calm and confidence when it comes.
To explore these trends in more depth – including country detail, sector insights and forward-looking assessments – download the full Risk Radar 2026: Americas report.
