What 500 leaders say about risk
Power, politics, economics and digital evolution are colliding – and it’s reshaping how organisations plan, adapt and compete. Complexity is now the norm. Leaders are juggling short-term shocks with long-term uncertainty. And one force runs through it all: geopolitics.
From armed conflict and political instability to climate volatility and the rise of AI, geopolitical forces are redrawing the boundaries of risk. The global order is fragmenting. The era of US-led globalisation is giving way to shifting alliances and competing blocs. The conflicts in Gaza and Ukraine show how local crises can destabilise global systems – fuelling insecurity, inflation and supply disruption far beyond their borders.
Risks on the horizon: the next 12 months
In the year ahead, organisations are focused on risks that move fast and hit hard. Cyber threats top the list (53%). Ransomware and data breaches are undermining operations and public trust. State-aligned groups are increasingly active, using cyber operations as tools of disruption and influence.
Supply chain disruption follows (37%). Conflict, sanctions and chokepoints are reshaping global trade. Instability in the Red Sea has interrupted shipping routes. Tensions between China and Taiwan raise the risk of longer-term disruption.
Geopolitical tensions rank third (34%). Political volatility now underpins many of the risks businesses face. The line between political and operational risk is blurring – with domestic unrest, regulatory shifts and fragmented alliances creating uncertainty across markets.
These risks don’t happen in isolation. A cyberattack can paralyse logistics. A regional conflict can trigger sanctions or expose data. Staying ahead will depend on real-time awareness, tested contingency plans and clear communication between functions.
Risks of the future: the next 3-5 years
Geopolitical instability remains the biggest long-term concern (37%). The post-Cold War order is unravelling, the US is shifting towards protectionism, while countries are reassessing trade relationships and aligning economic decisions with strategic interests.
Emerging economies are asserting regional leadership. The BRICS alliance is expanding, cooperation with ASEAN is growing and these shifts are reshaping trade flows and governance structures.
Climate disruption is rising again (29%). Floods, wildfires and droughts are becoming more frequent and harder to predict. The financial impact is growing – but climate risk is still often siloed in sustainability teams. Boards need to treat it as strategic.
Digital surveillance and data privacy (26%) are also climbing. High-profile breaches and Cloud outages have exposed vulnerabilities. AI is advancing faster than regulation – raising risks around IP theft, confidentiality and misuse.
What organisations should do next
Resilience now means embedding geopolitical awareness into strategy, risk management and operations. It means stress-testing supply chains, wargaming scenarios and integrating intelligence across teams.
Climate and digital risks need to be treated as strategic, not operational. That means linking them to business outcomes, not just compliance.
The risks ahead are faster, more connected and harder to contain. The organisations that thrive will be those that act early, adapt quickly and treat risk as a continuous discipline.
