Welcome to Risk Radar 2026

How global risk will play out locally

Risk doesn’t land evenly. Our regional analysts explore how global risks will play out locally – from youth-led unrest in Africa to hybrid warfare in Europe and organised crime in Latin America. Each section gives a snapshot of what’s included in the full report, with our topline assessments of what's driving instability and how organisations should respond.

Africa

Authored by: Cormac Oliver, Intelligence Analyst - Africa

• Transnational militancy

  Militant groups in the Sahel are expanding across borders, with Jama’at Nusrat ul-Islam wa al-Muslimin (JNIM) and Islamic State – Sahel Province (ISSP) pushing into coastal West Africa. The collapse of Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) coordination has created space for these groups to grow. Drone use, territorial control and cross-border offensives are reshaping the threat landscape. Organisations must monitor regional spillover risks and adapt security planning to fast-changing militant tactics.

• Geopolitical competition

  Foreign powers are deepening their involvement across Africa. Russia has formalised its military presence and expanded its media influence. Gulf states are increasingly active, with rivalries playing out in Sudan and mediation efforts in the DRC. The US and China continue to compete over mineral access. These shifting alliances are likely to complicate regional stability and increase indirect risks for businesses.

• Youth-led unrest

  A growing number of African governments are cracking down on opposition and restricting civic space. This has fuelled public anger and triggered waves of unrest, often led by young people mobilising through social media. With a large number of presidential and parliamentary elections scheduled across the region in 2026 and democratic backsliding continuing, protest risks will remain high. Governments are likely to respond with repression and digital shutdowns – measures that often escalate tensions rather than contain them.

Americas

Authored by: Felipe Wagner, Senior Intelligence Analyst - Americas

• Political drift

  Governments across the Andean region are struggling to govern. Gridlock, corruption and executive overreach are weakening democratic institutions. Violent unrest, especially around elections, is disrupting supply chains and undermining state legitimacy. In Bolivia, a political reset offers some hope – but subsidy cuts could reignite protests. Organisations should monitor legislative changes and prepare for flashpoints that could affect operations.

• Geopolitical friction

  The Trump Administration’s security-first foreign policy is increasing tensions across the Americas. Military deployments, sanctions and tariffs are straining US relations with key allies. The region is becoming a testing ground for assertive diplomacy – raising risks for trade, compliance and reputation. Businesses must track foreign policy shifts and assess exposure to economic coercion and diplomatic breakdowns.

• Criminal evolution

  Organised crime is becoming more complex across Latin America and the Caribbean. Groups like Brazil’s PCC are embedding themselves in legitimate sectors, while Ecuador faces record-breaking violence. In Colombia and Peru, criminal networks are expanding near borders, driving up extortion and homicide rates. Even where violence is falling – like parts of the Caribbean – risks remain high due to gang rivalries and opportunistic crime. Businesses must plan for spillover risks and adapt security protocols to fast-changing criminal tactics.

Asia Pacific (APAC)

Authored by: Michael Gardiner, Associate Analyst - APAC, and Ali Hassan, Associate Analyst - South Asia

• Public agitation

  Unrest is shaping the risk landscape across South and South-East Asia. In 2025, protests in Nepal forced a leadership change, while ‘Generation Z’ movements in East Timor, Indonesia and the Philippines triggered violent clashes and urban disruption. The drivers – corruption, inequality and authoritarianism – remain unresolved. With elections and economic pressure ahead, mobilisation is likely to continue into 2026. Organisations should monitor flashpoints, track protest triggers and prepare for disruption in politically fragile environments.

• Anticipating escalation

  Military tensions are rising across Asia’s key flashpoints. India-Pakistan brinkmanship, Taliban-Pakistan border clashes, and China’s posture in the Taiwan Strait as well as its commencement of the construction of the controversial Medog Hydropower Station, all point to elevated conflict risk. While full-scale war is unlikely, localised clashes and strategic posturing will continue. US-China trade tensions will almost certainly generate business uncertainty across the region. Businesses must assess exposure to regional instability, monitor escalation triggers, and ensure crisis plans are ready to activate.

• Environmental disruption

  Natural disasters are a persistent threat across the region. In 2025, earthquakes, typhoons and flooding caused thousands of deaths and widespread disruption. The unpredictability of seismic events and seasonal weather patterns continues to challenge business continuity. Organisations should prepare for rapid deterioration, update evacuation plans, and tailor crisis responses to local conditions.

Europe and CIS

Authored by: James Towndrow, Associate Analyst - Europe CIS

• Political polarisation

  Europe’s political centre faced continued pressure during 2025. Budget crises and elections in France and Germany showed how mainstream parties are losing ground to populist and fringe movements. External pressures – especially the war in Gaza – have fuelled protests and deepened divisions while increasing the risk of politically motivated violence. Organisations should monitor protest activity, track political shifts and prepare for disruption in polarised environments.

• Security risks

  Europe faces persistent threats from politically motivated violence and terrorism. Attacks in Germany and the UK in 2025 show how unrest linked to Middle East tensions is spilling into domestic security. Islamist and far-right actors continue to exploit polarising issues like immigration and tensions in the Middle East. Organisations should assess exposure, monitor threat levels and ensure crisis plans are ready to activate.

• The war in Ukraine

  The war in Ukraine, or its potential aftermath, will continue to test European governments throughout 2026. Russia’s hybrid warfare tactics are intensifying. Drone incursions, sabotage and disinformation campaigns disrupted infrastructure and elections across Europe in 2025. NATO’s eastern flank remains most exposed, but the threat is spreading. Organisations should prepare for the elevated risk of cyber-attacks, as well as the growing challenges posed by disinformation and operational disruption linked to hybrid tactics.

Middle East and North Africa (MENA)

Authored by: Alice Duman, Intelligence Analyst – MENA

• Regional conflict

  In 2025, the Israel-Hamas war and the Twelve-Day War between Israel and Iran triggered widespread airspace closures and regional spillover. Lebanon remains volatile, with Hezbollah-Israel dynamics still fragile. Despite ceasefires and diplomatic efforts, hardline positions and unresolved disputes mean the risk of sudden escalation remains high. Organisations should monitor flashpoints, assess exposure to conflict zones and ensure contingency plans are in place for travel and operations across the region.

• Nuclear armament

  Iran’s nuclear programme remains a key source of friction. Military strikes on nuclear sites and the snapback of UN sanctions have reignited fears of wider conflict. Iran’s refusal to negotiate and threats to exit the NPT suggest diplomacy is faltering. With regional powers repositioning, organisations should track escalation risks and prepare for volatility.

• Climate impact on infrastructure

  Extreme weather is straining infrastructure and fuelling unrest. Droughts, floods and energy shortages are exposing weak government responses and driving public agitation. Iran’s water and energy crises are deepening, while cross-border tensions over shared resources are growing. Organisations should strengthen resilience to climate shocks, monitor protest risks and plan for service disruption.