ISKP threats during the US Election

Background: Arrests in the US

The most recent arrest occurred in Oklahoma City on 7 October, when the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) detained a man for allegedly plotting an election-day terrorist attack in the name of ISKP. The assailant and his brother-in-law reportedly planned to carry out a mass shooting attack targeting crowds on 5 November. He was captured minutes after buying two AK-47s and around 500 rounds of ammunition from an undercover FBI agent in rural Oklahoma.

The FBI had previously arrested eight Tajik nationals in June due to their suspected links to ISKP. The eight individuals were living in New York, Los Angeles, and Philadelphia, with at least one of them entering the United States through the southern border. The group’s entrance was allegedly facilitated by a human smuggling network, which US officials believe is connected to the Islamic State. The case led FBI Director Christopher Wray to warn Congress about a heightened risk of radicalised individuals entering the country to carry out terrorist attacks. Concerns were amplified after the inspector general of the Department of Homeland Security claimed the agency lacks the vetting tools to identify and stop individuals with possible ties with terrorist groups at the border.

Capability and intent

While ISKP does not have a proven track record of militant activity in the US, we assess the threat it poses during the election period as HIGH owing to the fact that it has some in-country capability and has expressed intent to conduct an attack. ISKP’s greatest asset is its ability to outsource militant activity to lone wolf threat actors via compelling online propaganda, as well as its reputation for carrying out lethal attacks, which it gained after claiming responsibility for the mass-casualty Crocus City Hall shooting and explosions on 22 March. The US has feared that ISKP will reach its doorstep for several months, and we assess that its intelligence agencies have been preparing for a major Islamist terrorist attack. Despite the alert posture of the intelligence agencies, the possibility that ISKP successfully carries out an attack in the US in the near term cannot be ruled out.

ISKP’s intent will be particularly high during the election period owing to the fact that media channels will dedicate coverage to the US polls. The group believes it can make the greatest impact by conducting an attack that will draw global attention, as it did in Moscow. Election rallies and political gatherings are potential targets, since such events compel a large number of people into a limited space. ISKP sympathisers will be particularly active between now and 6 November (the day after the election), but they may maintain an active posture up until the next president officially begins their term in January.

Advice to organisations and personnel operating in-country

• Exercise a high degree of vigilance to suspicious activity and packages. If you detect something untoward, report it immediately. Remove yourself from the immediate vicinity and inform the security forces.
• Comply with all official directives issued by the local police and authorities.
• Monitor Healix’s Travel Oracle for country-specific updates alongside local media sources.