What happens next: US presidential debate

This week, Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump faced off in their first presidential debate, hosted by ABC News. The debate mostly revolved around border security, the economy, foreign affairs, and reproductive rights. Trump criticised the administration’s handling of inflation and immigration and sidestepped questions on his reversal of Florida’s abortion ban and whether he would support a national ban.

Harris set the tone for the rest of the debate, and was widely seen as the stronger performer by both pundits and the betting markets. A notable moment came when Trump avoided stating his support for a decisive Ukrainian victory in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, marking a shift in foreign policy discourse.

An unusually important debate

While precedent indicates presidential debates rarely impact election results, this particular debate was a key component in both candidate’s campaigns.

As the last candidate to join the race following President Joe Biden’s withdrawal, Harris attempted to clarify her policies and differentiate her campaign from Biden’s, particularly after being accused by opponents of purposefully minimising media appearances.

Trump’s campaign had to use the debate to shift the discourse away from Biden’s weaknesses, which helped him win the first debate earlier this year, as these attack lines are no longer relevant now Harris is the opposing candidate.

As Trump struggled to set the debate’s tone, Harris took the opportunity to be on the attack. Trump was forced to defend himself, which contrasted with Trump’s debate against Biden and left the impression that Harris was better prepared for the event.

Heightened unrest and transitional risks: what the upcoming election could bring

The pro-Palestinian protest on 10 September, which temporarily blocked roads outside the debate venue, underscores an increasing risk of politically-motivated unrest as election day approaches on 5 November.

Many protests centre around the Israel-Hamas war, with both candidates showing support for Israel military operations, though to different degrees. As the conflict nears its one-year anniversary on 7 October, this issue is likely to remain a focal point for demonstrations.

Frequent low-level clashes with the police and detentions during protests, reflecting the risk of incidental violence.

Trump’s refusal to take responsibility 6 January 2021 Capitol riot, and his shift in tone regarding the 2020 election, backtracking on comments acknowledging his defeat in 2020, signals a significant risk for the upcoming vote. His campaign is likely to contest results if he loses the election, which could lead to heightened tensions. Any reports related to mail-in ballots and the election’s certification process could trigger protest activity, particularly in Republican-majority states and Washington DC. The spread of misinformation and disinformation, especially around election fraud, will likely be a driving factor for further protest activity.

Advice

• Identify flashpoint locations for unrest, such as campaign rallies, public squares and transport hubs.
• Exercise basic security precautions in case of protest activity, exiting the area at the first sign of unrest.
• Closely monitor election-related developments via local and international media reporting as well as trusted multi-source intelligence advisories such as the Healix Sentinel Risk Management Platform.
• Where applicable, remain neutral on social media and refrain from sharing content related to the election.

For further information or to learn how Healix can support you, contact enquiries@healix.com.