What’s happening: M23 offensive in Goma

The situation remains extremely dynamic as of 29 January, but updated reports suggest M23 now controls most of the city despite pockets of resistance from the Armed Forces of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (FARDC). M23 control appears to include Goma International Airport (GOM) since 28 January after intense fighting in the area. Recent reports suggest there are now over 100 fatalities because of severe armed clashes within the city.

Ongoing armed clashes in Goma and surrounding areas highlight M23’s rapid advance in DRC’s eastern provinces over the past 1-2 weeks. The group announced its intent to advance on and seize Goma after capturing the strategically important towns of Sake (North Kivu) and Minova (South Kivu) on 23 and 21 January, respectively. M23 has posed an EXTREME regional threat in recent years - the group has been fighting a renewed insurgency in North and South Kivu since 2022, with militants also conducting regular attacks against civilians.

Diplomatic relations between DRC and Rwanda broke down in recent weeks. Rwanda is accused of backing M23 and has been the target of extensive international condemnation, although it denies the accusations. Attempts to revive international mediation efforts are ongoing, with an extraordinary summit of the East African Community (EAC) taking place on 29 January.

A significant and rapid deterioration of the security risk environment

The developments in the past 24-72 hours reflect a significant and rapid deterioration of the security risk environment in the eastern provinces. Gunshots, artillery fire and explosions have been reported throughout Goma since 27 January as many areas are believed to remain contested. No area appears to be immune from the risk of armed clashes in the near term, posing a significant incidental risk to life. The escalation will almost certainly exacerbate the dire humanitarian conditions due to major shortages of basic goods and significant civilian displacement.

The risk of spill over into Rwanda and external conflict is significantly elevated in the near term amid heightened tensions between DRC and Rwanda. Gunfire was noted in the vicinity of Gisenyi due to nearby armed clashes between the FARDC and Rwandan Defence Force (RDF) on 27 January, with the authorities instructing residents to remain indoors. Cross-border clashes and RDF claims of rocket fire have reportedly killed nine people and wounded up to 30 others between 27 and 28 January. Exposure to armed clashes and disruption will remain significantly elevated in border areas while the fighting continues and can lead to intermittent border closures at short notice. Extreme insecurity, hostile relations between DRC and Rwanda, and an increasingly pessimistic peace/ceasefire process increase the risk of an escalation into open conflict that involves multiple regional players.

A significantly elevated countrywide risk of unrest will persist in the coming weeks. Conflict escalations in the eastern DRC tend to aggravate anti-Western and anti-Rwandan sentiment, driving protests that can turn violent at short notice. This risk was punctuated by significant unrest in Kinshasa on 28 January, as hundreds of people mobilised to denounce the M23 offensive, as well as perceived Rwandan aggression and international inaction. Disruption and violence were widespread in the capital, with embassies, businesses, humanitarian organisations, supermarkets, vehicles and private residences affected. Roadblocks were established along several major routes, including the main artery to/from N’djili International Airport (FIH), although the airport remained open. Further protests appear to be planned for 29 January.

The viability of evacuation from the eastern provinces has been significantly degraded since 26 January, especially with the closure of GOM. M23 activity in Goma and reports of contested control generate high levels of uncertainty regarding the permissibility of movement and viability of evacuation, even while the border crossings with Rwanda appear operational as of 29 January. Roads in and out of Goma are blocked due to M23’s encirclement of the city, leaving few options. Evacuations from Kinshasa remain viable despite the recent unrest, although this is liable to change at short notice.

Advice for organisations and personnel operating in Goma

• Due to high levels of uncertainty over the permissibility of movement and viability of evacuations, Healix’s current advice for personnel in Goma is to stand fast. Defer evacuations until viability is re-assessed and confirmed.
• Evacuations should be considered in other parts of the DRC in line with your organisation’s risk tolerance, due to the deteriorating security risks and significantly elevated risk of further unrest, including in Kinshasa.
• Take note of protests and be prepared to stand fast and defer non-essential movement at short notice in the event of unrest.
• Reconfirm the viability of evacuations and travel regularly as the situation remains highly fluid.

Contact the Healix GSOC to be added to the Rolling SitRep distribution list for the latest developments and assessment at gsoc@healix.com