What happens now following the CJP protests in India?

The youth-led protest movement, the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP), announced the suspension of protest activity following the ousting of India's Education Minister, Dharmendra Pradhan, on 25 July.

Pradhan's resignation signifies a rare instance in Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s rule – a cabinet minister being removed from office due to sustained public pressure and political controversy. In Modi’s 12-year tenure, only one other minister had stepped down amid a major public controversy – former Indian junior foreign minister MJ Akbar in October 2018 following accusations of sexual harassment.  

The Supreme Court has ordered the release of all detained protestors under the age of 18 and indicated that it will launch an independent investigation into allegations of police misconduct during the protests. Security forces had employed crowd-dispersal methods including the use of tear gas, pellet guns, and baton charges, resulting in frequent clashes across urban centres in India. More than 100 protesters have reportedly been arrested and charged since the onset of the demonstrations.  

Will the protests persist? 

While the CJP has achieved the main objective in the successful removal of Pradhan, the movement has accused the authorities of failing to honour commitments related to the legal immunity of the student protestors and of using pellet guns against protesters. 

Hundreds of protesters have reportedly been either detained or have face criminal cases arising from the unrest, and the CJP has warned that a resumption of protest activity could resume unless all student detainees are released.   

Renewed protests in the short-to-medium term cannot be ruled out, particularly if students remain in police custody, promised reforms are perceived to be delayed, or there is no investigation into the police’s alleged use of pellet guns against protesters. Unrest risks should therefore be assessed as a latent risk rather than fully resolved, with the continued detention of protestors and a perceived lack of authority accountability a credible trigger for any renewed CJP mobilisation. 

The CJP will likely continue to leverage the prospect of renewed protests as a pressure mechanism while pursuing demands. In the near term, isolated gatherings and public statements are assessed as more likely than an immediate return to sustained large-scale protests.  

Advice for organisations 

• Continue to monitor local news and official updates for developments that may increase unrest risks, particularly those related to the continued detention of student protesters, legal proceedings, or a lack of an investigation into the police’s alleged use of pellet guns against protesters.  

• Inbound travel to India can continue; however, travellers should be briefed on contingency measures and maintain flexibility in travel plans in the event of a deterioration of the security risk environment.  

• Maintain a heightened level of situational awareness in major urban centres, including Delhi, and other locations associated with protest activity such as the Jantar Mandar.   

• Strictly bypass large gatherings and demonstrations due to the credible risk of unrest. If a large gathering is scheduled to take place or is ongoing, reconfirm the viability of routes before commencing journeys. 

• If unrest occurs, avoid the area immediately and follow directives issued by the local authorities.