What's happening: Cartel activity in Mexico

Members of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (CJNG) burned stolen vehicles on streets and highways, set up roadblocks and clashed with security forces. The situation has affected Jalisco, Nayarit, Guanajuato, Zacatecas and Michoacán, with further confirmed incidents in Tamaulipas, Colima, Aguascalientes, Veracruz, Oaxaca, Guerrero, Sinaloa, Baja California, Nuevo León and Quintana Roo.

Triggers behind the escalation 

The surge in violence began after a joint operation by the National Intelligence Centre, the Attorney General’s Office (FEMDO), and the Mexican Army targeted a CJNG stronghold in Tapalpa, Jalisco, at around 07h45 (all times local). Federal authorities confirmed the deaths of CJNG’s leader, known as “El Mencho”, and three other members in armed clashes near Tapalpa. The United States was not involved in the operation but provided intelligence support. Soon after, the US State Department issued two security alerts urging US nationals in several affected states to shelter in place.

Emerging reports indicate cartel members are operating with discrimination. Videos on social media show assailants stealing vehicles and blocking roads, but their aim appears to be chaos and signalling power rather than harming civilians. However, targeted attacks on the security forces are likely over the coming days.

Jalisco has seen the worst disruption, with at least 21 blockades. CJNG members were reportedly advising residents to avoid public areas after 16h00. Public transport was suspended in Guadalajara, Puerto Vallarta and Tapalpa. Blockades also appeared on highways and in urban areas, including central Puerto Vallarta. Staff at the Hospital Civil de Guadalajara started to evacuate patients due to reports of cartel presence.

Michoacán, Nayarit, Tamaulipas and Guanajuato have also faced widespread blockades, with arson attacks recorded in several towns. Zacatecas, Baja California, Nuevo León, Colima, Sinaloa, Morelos, Quintana Roo and Guerrero have reported similar incidents. Several states have activated emergency security protocols.

How the situation is developing

The security situation outside of Jalisco, Michoacán, Nayarit and Chiapas has stabilised, with all major airports except Guadalajara (GDL) and Puerto Vallarta (PVR) operating normally.

In Puerto Vallarta, flights continue to be disrupted due to crew availability, and it is highly likely these disruptions will persist throughout the day. The city has activated its emergency plan to restore mobility and services, including the removal of over 200 vehicles. Aeromexico has stated that it will restart operations at GDL and PVR throughout the day, with operations at Manzanillo International Airport (ZLO) in Colima and Tepic International Airport (TPQ) also restarting. Local authorities are attempting to restore normal operations by 24 February; there is an even chance this will succeed.

Likelihood of further disruption

New rounds of retaliatory attacks by CJNG members following the confirmation of El Mencho's death are likely in the short term (one to two days) in Jalisco, Nayarit and Michoacán.  

While cartel members have focused on setting up narco-bloqueos and have mostly refrained from engaging in armed clashes thus far, they are likely to increasingly launch attacks against infrastructure linked to the security forces, such as local police departments, the National Guard and the Army. This follows unconfirmed reports that CJNG offered each member who kills a Mexican soldier 20,000 Mexican Pesos each.

Most roadblocks have been successfully lifted, though a limited number remain active, particularly in Jalisco.

Over 250 roadblocks had been reported on 22 February, and despite Mexico’s President, Claudia Scheinbaum, claiming that all roadblocks have been lifted, this is not the case in Jalisco, where around 20 to 30 remain; Highway 15D around Guadalajara is the most affected road. Emergency services are present at the roadblocks attempting to clear the roads.

The scale of the security forces' operations to regain control of affected areas will dictate their response over the next 48 hours.

A large-scale, immediate deployment to respond to further retaliatory attacks by cartel members signals that authorities seek to ensure that the situation does not deteriorate significantly again, along with the goal of restoring normal services and operations by the end of 23 February; this scenario is likely to lead to a further short-term deterioration in several locations in Jalisco, Nayarit and Michoacán. Small-scale and surgical operations indicate that authorities prefer a non-confrontative approach and will wait for the situation to de-escalate.

Advice for travellers in the region

• Follow the instructions of local authorities. In an emergency, call 911.
• Shelter-in-place and minimise non-essential movements. If travel is required, bypass areas with visible security force presence, roadblocks, burning vehicles, or large gatherings. Check @CAPUFE on X for real-time road status updates.
• If encountering an unofficial roadblock, remain calm, reduce speed gradually and comply with visible instructions. Do not attempt to bypass or force your way through barriers. Avoid photographing or filming individuals at checkpoints, and withdraw only if it is clearly safe to do so.
• If gunfire or explosions are heard nearby, move away from windows and external walls. Stay low and out of sight. Avoid balconies, rooftops, and elevated areas. Do not approach windows to watch events or record video. Seek shelter in an interior room if possible and remain there until the noise has stopped.
• Make sure mobile devices and power banks are fully charged. Keep identification and travel documents accessible, and make duplicate copies if possible.
• Conserve essential supplies in case of temporary disruptions, including at least four to five litres of water per person per day.
• If staying in hotels or resorts, familiarise yourself with evacuation routes and muster points. These are usually posted on the inside of your room door, near fire extinguishers, or next to emergency exits. If an evacuation is announced over the PA system or by staff, follow their guidance.
• Establish a regular check in schedule with your organisation or designated contacts. Keep family, friends, and your organisation updated on your location and wellbeing by phone or text. Avoid posting real time location updates on social media.
• If travelling to airports, confirm both flight status and ground access conditions. Delay departure if credible reporting indicates instability along routes to the airport.
• Monitor local media, official government advisories and the Healix Sentinel Intelligence Portal for updates. Conditions remain fluid and may change with little notice.