Natural disaster risk outlook in APAC for the rest of 2026

Together, these overlapping climate drivers are expected to shape the security and operational environment across the Asia-Pacific region over the next six months, with an increased likelihood of disruption to travel, infrastructure, supply chains and business continuity.

Typhoon season 

Multiple typhoons and seven named systems have already formed marking an active start to the 2026 season. The peak of the typhoon season in the North-West Pacific Ocean tends to occur between May and October, where 85-90% of season formations take place. Typhoon Sinlaku has been the strongest storm of the season so far, which caused significant disruption and damage in the Micronesia region in April. 

The active season appears highly likely to continue, with some forecasters suggesting that activity could increase by 25% compared to the 1990-2020 average. Around 27 tropical storms could form, with 18 of those developing into typhoons, which would represent the most active season since 2015. Elevated natural disaster risks will persist for large parts of East Asia, Southeast Asia and the Micronesia region over the coming months. However, overall confidence in the estimates is low, given the difficulty in forecasting conditions in the North-West Pacific Ocean over a six-month period.  

Monsoonal rainfall 

Monsoonal rainfall is expected throughout South and Southeast Asia in the coming months.  

The Southwest Monsoon period is ongoing in parts of Southeast Asia through at least November. Affected countries include Brunei, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Thailand and Vietnam. Countries exposed to typhoons during the monsoon season are especially vulnerable to severe natural disasters, especially the Philippines and Vietnam. Estimates for rainfall levels vary, with southern parts of the region anticipated to experience below-average to average rainfall, and northern areas observing greater variability.  

In South Asia, the monsoon season typically occurs between June and September. The higher-risk areas are expected to include the major river basins of Bangladesh, the Himalayan and sub-Himalayan regions of northern India, Nepal’s hill districts, Pakistan’s floodplains and mountain corridors, and densely populated coastal and urban areas with limited drainage capacity. Similarly to Southeast Asia, rainfall in large parts of South Asia is expected to be below-average, with the Indian government announcing contingency plans for the agriculture sector due to potentially low rainfall levels on 16th June. 

Regardless of expected changes to rainfall levels, natural disaster risks remain elevated in both regions during the respective monsoon seasons. Landslides are increasingly common in mountainous and hilly areas, alongside flooding in riverine, coastal and low-lying areas. Glacial runoff associated with heatwaves earlier in the year may also cause significant flooding in parts of South Asia. Adverse conditions are capable of significantly disrupting local and regional travel, including at major transport hubs.  

El Niño 

A key variable for natural disaster risks in the Asia Pacific over the coming months is El Niño. 

El Niño is a naturally occurring phenomenon driven by warming ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Equatorial Pacific. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) usually observes El Niño conditions every two to seven years, and it can last up to a year at a time. The phenomenon was declared in June and is expected to strengthen over the coming months, possibly into one of the strongest on record.  

El Niño’s effects vary each time it appears, but it is anticipated to differ by region. For example, it could prompt drought conditions due to higher temperatures and reduced rainfall, but it could also generate higher levels of rainfall beyond the norm. The former is more likely for South, Southeast Asia and South Pacific Islands, while the latter is plausible for parts of East Asia and the Micronesia region.  

The commonality is more extreme weather conditions are expected, including significant flooding, droughts and/or heatwaves.  

El Niño’s arrival is a key contributing factor behind the expected uptick in typhoon activity, as heat and moisture conditions are more favourable to longer tracks and typhoon development. Fledging storm systems can intensify to more serious levels the longer it spends in warmer water. However, drier than normal conditions are expected in large parts of South and Southeast Asia, which will likely mitigate the impacts of the respective monsoon seasons. The greater risk is prolonged heatwave conditions and droughts that may disrupt the reliability of food supply, water availability and place pressure on local infrastructure, increasing the risk of severe operational disruption. Secondary effects, such as bushfires, are also more likely due to drier conditions, such as in Australia towards the summer months. 

Advice 

• Review or establish internal escalation protocols and business continuity plans to account for the heightened natural disaster risk forecast for the coming months. 

• Undertake comprehensive pre-trip journey management planning for all ground moves, particularly if there are weather warnings in place. This journey management plan should identify suitable stand-fast locations stocked with essential supplies in the event of a rapidly developing natural disaster. 

• Regularly monitor relevant meteorological agency channels for updates on weather conditions and storm activity, such as the Regional Specialied Meteorological Center (RSMC) in Tokyo that tracks typhoons in the north-west Pacific.