What you need to know about the ongoing Afghanistan-Pakistan conflict

The conflict has seen near-daily clashes between the two sides at several points along the Durand Line – the 1,640 mile (2,620km) long Afghanistan-Pakistan border – and Pakistani airstrikes deep within Afghanistan, including in the capital Kabul and the Taliban centre of Kandahar. While both sides claim different casualty figures, at least 212 Afghan and eight Pakistani civilians have died. The worst day of the conflict was 16 March, when a Pakistani airstrike on the Omid Addiction Treatment Hospital, a drug rehabilitation centre in Kabul, resulted in at least 143 fatalities, with the Afghan Taliban claiming over 408 deaths.

Afghanistan and Pakistan agreed to a five-day ceasefire on 18 March on account of the Eid-ul-Fitr religious festival. The ceasefire expired at 00h00 (PKT) on 24 March, several hours after which Pakistan reportedly conducted a drone strike targeting an Afghan Taliban position in Afghanistan’s northern Balkh province. The Afghan Taliban accused Pakistani forces of trying to enter Afghanistan’s Nuristan border province on 25 March. Local media reports suggested that Pakistan had taken control of several border posts in Nuristan on 25 March, a claim that the Afghan Taliban has denied. Border crossings between Afghanistan and Pakistan remain closed, with reports suggesting that the closures are resulting in a shortage of essential supplies in Afghan villages along the Durand Line.

Why are Afghanistan and Pakistan fighting?

Afghanistan and Pakistan have long shared a troubled bilateral relationship, marked by the former’s refusal to recognise the Durand Line as the official border demarcating the two countries, and the latter’s historic support for the Afghan Taliban before the group’s reestablishment of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) in 2021. However, Pakistan and the IEA have fallen out, linked to a rise in militancy in Pakistan for which it holds the Afghan Taliban responsible. Pakistan alleges that the IEA supports anti-Pakistan militants, foremost among which is the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), a religious insurgent group that poses a significant challenge to Pakistani authority in parts of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province which border Afghanistan.

Pakistan believes that it must take matters into its own hands and target alleged TTP locations in Afghanistan via drones and airstrikes in addition to expediting the expulsion of the sizeable Afghan refugee population in the country. Pakistan’s strategy relies partly on the hope of securing tactical gains and partly on the expectation that its escalation will improve its negotiating position vis-à-vis the IEA. The Afghan Taliban will probably not heed Pakistan’s demands because it has long-established cultural and military ties with the TTP, instead choosing to respond to Pakistan’s escalation with indignation and a military response. 

How might the conflict end?

We expect low-intensity conflict to continue along border areas over the next 3-6 months, alongside occasional Pakistani drone and airstrikes deep in Afghanistan. A lasting negotiated settlement appears to be highly unlikely; the IEA is highly unlikely to reduce or cease its support for the TTP, and several rounds of negotiations over the past two years have ended without a concrete resolution. As relations continue to worsen and diplomatic avenues shrink, the prospect of a prolonged conflict increases, though one that does not expand beyond current battle lines.

Advice for travellers

• Strictly defer all non-essential travel to areas along the Afghanistan-Pakistan border due to the EXTREME security risks linked to terrorism and external conflict.
• If in Afghanistan, ensure evacuation and contingency plans are up-to-date and actionable at short notice.
• If in Pakistan, closely monitor developments and note that heightened security to deter terrorism in urban centres is likely during the coming 3-4 weeks.

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