Philippines earthquake: Infrastructure damage and operational risk outlook

At around 07h37 (all times local), the earthquake was located approximately 26 km south-west of Kablalan (Sarangani Province), at a depth of 55km.More than 2,000 aftershocks have been recorded as of 11 June. 

Tsunami warnings were issued across parts of Indonesia, Malaysia, Palau, Papua New Guinea, the Philippines, Taiwan and Yap (Federated States of Micronesia). Small waves were observed in areas of Indonesia and the Philippines, but warnings were rescinded later the same day. 

Impact and disruption

The earthquake has caused mass-casualties, severe damage and major disruption in southern Mindanao, including to General Santos City, where a state of calamity has been declared.

As of 11 June, authorities have reported at least 47 fatalities and nearly 700 injuries, with more than 45,000 people displaced. Around 238 buildings were damaged, including several collapses, such as to the RD Plaza building in General Santos City. 

General Santos International Airport (GES) suspended operations pending safety assessments following the earthquake and has since limited operations to government, military and humanitarian flights until 11 June. Other airports in Mindanao remain operational. 

Road and bridge damage has been reported across the region, though most routes remain passable. Power and telecommunications outages have occurred, and search and rescue operations are ongoing.

Operational outlook

The security and operational environments in southern Mindanao rapidly deteriorated on 8 June following the earthquake, particularly in General Santos City.

Casualty figures are likely to rise in the coming days as search and rescue operations continue, with at least 31 individuals still missing. Residual disruption is almost certain to persist for at least the next week given the severity of the incident. 

Comprehensive damage assessments are unlikely to be completed by the end of the week, despite extensive government and international support. Damage to roads, bridges and other infrastructure will likely compromise the viability of travel in the short term, with some mountainous or hilly areas potentially cut off by landslides or rock falls, making them only accessible by helicopter. 

Commercial flights at GES are highly likely to resume from 11 June, restoring baseline air connectivity. Power, telecommunications and water outages are likely to persist in the worst affected areas. Damage to medical facilities and hospitals combined with ongoing outages will likely limit healthcare availability in the coming weeks, with some areas forced to set up temporary medical tents due to structural concerns.

Further aftershocks are almost certain near the epicentre of the original earthquake for several days to weeks and may slow rescue operations. Already weakened structures remain particularly vulnerable, reinforcing the need for completing rigorous damage assessments prior to the resumption of normal operations.

Risk context

The incident is assessed as DIVERGENT due to its severity. While earthquakes and other seismic activity occur frequently in Mindanao, events of this scale are less common. Natural disaster risk across the Philippines is HIGH and resiliency is generally low to major earthquakes due to the quality of hard infrastructure.

The country is disaster-prone, given its location along the Pacific ‘Ring of Fire’. Mindanao is situated in a seismically active area of the country; the Sarangani coast faces the Cotabato Trench, which can generate major earthquakes. According to the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS), earthquakes ranging from magnitudes 5.7 to 8.0 have occurred at least seven times between 1917 and 2023 Building codes dictate that new buildings must withstand significant seismic activity, but many remain uncompliant with these specifications, particularly older buildings.

Recommended actions

Operations and travel                                                       

• Verify the status and viability of all planned travel to, from and within southern Mindanao prior to departure.
• Anticipate delays and disruption to onward ground movement, even as air connectivity resumes via General Santos International Airport.
• Factor in potential access constraints to remote or elevated areas due to landslides and infrastructure damage.

Personnel safety

• Restrict access to any buildings or facilities that have not undergone formal structural assessments.
• Brief personnel on aftershock protocols and enforce caution in previously affected areas.
• Prepare for short-notice relocation from coastal areas if tsunami warnings are reissued.

Communications and continuity

• Confirm the resilience of communication channels, including contingency options where primary networks are disrupted.
• Plan for continued outages (power, telecoms, water) in heavily affected areas and ensure redundancy where operations depend on them.

Medical and response capacity

• Assume reduced availability of local healthcare services and increased reliance on temporary or degraded facilities.
• Review medical support arrangements for personnel operating in affected locations.

Monitoring and compliance

• Maintain close monitoring of official guidance from the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (PHIVOLCS) and National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council (NDRRMC).
• Ensure local teams are aligned with government directives and evolving restrictions.