Atlantic hurricane season outlook 2024


Hurricane activity elevates operational and security risks across the Caribbean and the wider Atlantic basin each year between 1 June and 30 November.

The 2023 season was ranked as one of the busiest seasons on record since 1950. Of the twenty named storms recorded, seven became hurricanes, and three intensified into major hurricanes (Category Three or higher); hurricanes Franklin, Idalia and Lee.

Hurricane Idalia was one of the most notable hurricanes of the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, leaving a significant mark on the southeastern United States. The hurricane inflicted significant damage to infrastructure, homes, and coastal communities in its path, and was recorded as the most powerful hurricane to hit the region since 1896.

The activity witnessed in 2023 was influenced by exceptionally warm Atlantic ocean surface temperatures, which provide perfect conditions for storm development and intensification. Despite initial expectations of a quieter season due to the anticipated onset of El Niño, warm waters within the Atlantic basin nullified this effect, although stronger wind shear helped to prevent the majority of storms from significantly strengthening.

What can we expect from the 2024 hurricane season?

Looking ahead to the 2024 hurricane season, most weather agencies have predicted ‘above-normal’ hurricane activity in the Atlantic basin this year. This is due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm Atlantic ocean temperatures and a predicted quick transition from one of the strongest El Niño seasons ever observed to La Niña. The presence of La Niña will reduce the Atlantic trade winds and cause weaker wind shear, which favours tropical storm development, leading to an increase in hurricane activity.

Proactive strategies for safety and resilience

As we prepare for another hurricane season, it’s important that organisations operating in vulnerable regions implement proactive risk management to ensure the safety and resilience of their people and operations.

Prior to hurricane season

  • Review evacuation plans: Ensure actionable evacuation plans are in place, including the temporary scaling down of on-site work and moving both staff and assets.
  • Identify evacuation triggers: Establish your company’s risk tolerance and confirm evacuation plans accordingly.
  • Establish business continuity plans: This can include the storage of assets, the use of working-from-home procedures, and the protection of work sites.

Preparation for an incoming hurricane

  • Monitor developments: Leverage local weather forecasts and reliable metrological sources such as the National Hurricane Center (NHC) will give advance warnings in the event of storm formation.
  • Maintain a ‘grab bag’: Staff should pack a grab bag of essential supplies, which allows them to be self-sufficient for 72 hours.
  • Confirm emergency response protocols: Ensure staff are aware of the internal communication channels to use in the event of a major hurricane.

In case of an impending storm

  • Identify a viable shelter: The safest location is in interior rooms on the second floor of a robust building away from windows.
  • Establish whether evacuation measures need to be actioned: Quickly decide whether those in the passage of the storm should evacuate or stand fast.
  • Follow all directives issued by authorities: This includes road closures, mandatory evacuations, and any other directives.
  • Anticipate operational disruption: Disruption to power and utilities is possible; alternative power supplies, adequate supplies of water, food and fuel, and back-up communication methods should be in place.

Contact our Global Security Operations Centre for bespoke advice, or for help in authoring appropriate evacuation plans which gives employees and security managed detailed and actionable options for rapidly evacuating assets in the event of a potentially catastrophic hurricane. Email

Saskia Veldhuizen
Senior Security Coordinator
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