Is America still preeminent? Thoughts from former US Ambassador
America has been the preeminent global power since 1945. Although its relative power has diminished over these 80 years, it is still by far the most powerful country in the world today. And it has used this power to foster and sustain a rules-based order that has governed much of global politics since the end of World War II.
There is little doubt that the United States remains the most powerful military and economic power in the world. If anything, its power has increased relative to almost all other countries over the past decade. But its political influence has begun to wane. China has emerged as a major competitor for influence, especially in what is now called the Global South. And America has made some significant policy missteps, which have helped undermine the confidence of allies in its leadership and the fear of adversaries in its deterrent power.
Within the United States, moreover, there are growing doubts about the willingness to bear the burdens of global preeminence for much longer. While around the world, a growing number of voices express misgivings about America’s preeminent role and resistance to accepting the rules that lie at its foundation. The re-election of Donald Trump reinforces both challenges to America’s preeminence.
American power resurgent
America today is more powerful than it has been in years. Its military is unequalled. Its economy is outpacing those of competitors and friends alike. It is the largest energy producer in the world. It’s leading the AI and digital revolutions that will transform life as we know it. It remains the indispensable power that allies and adversaries look to address the world’s growing problems.
Military power
At nearly US$ 1 trillion annually, the United States spends more on defence and intelligence than the next nine countries combined [1]. Of those nine countries, four are treaty allies and three are friendly countries (India, Saudi Arabia, and Ukraine). It spends more than three times what China spends on defence and twice as much as what China and Russia spend together.
With that spending, the United States fields the only truly global military force. Its twelve aircraft carriers can bring airpower to bear at virtually any place on earth. Its navy dominates the oceans. Its air force can reach any target anywhere within 24 hours. Its army can beat any foe. And its Marines provide an unparalleled ability to project power over great distance. Whether on land, at sea, in the air, cyber, and space, the US military dominates all.
Yet, this dominance cannot be guaranteed forever. China is modernising its military across all dimensions at unprecedented speed. Its nuclear forces will near numerical equality of America and Russia by the end of the decade. Its naval forces have all the characteristics of a blue water navy able to challenge the US throughout the Indo-Pacific. Its air forces are deploying 5th generation fighters and bombers. Its land forces are being professionalised. And its reach in space and across cyber space is extensive and increasingly threatening.
China is also key to bolstering Russia’s war economy by shipping critical dual-use items to underpin its defence industrial base. All of which means that China now represents the “shaping threat” for the US military. Unless significant new investments are made by the Pentagon, America risks falling behind China’s growing military capability – especially in the economically crucial Indo-Pacific region.
Economic power
It was only a few years ago that China was expected to surpass America’s economy in size this decade. No longer. China is facing significant structural problems – including growing local government debt, a real estate bubble, a rapidly ageing population, western export restrictions on critical technologies, and lost faith in the market. At the same time, America’s economy has expanded at a rate equal to, or even surpassing, that of China in recent years (measured by actual as opposed to reported Chinese growth rates). While China’s GDP accounts for about 16% of global GDP (up almost five-fold since 2000), the US economy is more than 50% larger, at 27% of world GDP. The US also remains by far the strongest economy among its peers – accounting for 60% of the GDP of the G7 economies, which is a larger percentage than at any time since the group’s founding in the late 1970s. American companies also dominate the globe – eleven of top 20 firms in the world are American, including six of the top ten [2]. China is second (five firms), with the UK (two), Saudi Arabia and Japan completing the list.
America is also a dominant energy player, producing more oil, gas, renewable, and nuclear energy than any other country on earth. While China is the largest energy producer in the world, more than three-quarters of its production is coal. The United States has also become a top energy exporter, including of oil and liquified natural gas. Its gas exports have quadrupled over the last ten years and doubled over the last five years. In 2023, it became the largest liquefied natural gas exporter in the world, surpassing Qatar and Australia for the first time.
Finally, when it comes to the future growth of the global economy, technology innovation is key. Here, too, the United States excels. Across the digital spectrum – from software and artificial intelligence to chip design and quantum computing – the United States is the undisputed leader in the world. Eight of the top ten technology companies, and twelve of the top 20, are US-based [3]. From Apple, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta to IBM, Intel, Cisco, and Oracle – US technology innovation dominates the world.
Political power
Measuring political power is more difficult than military and economic power. But one core political strength that has underpinned US preeminence over the past 80 years is its alliance structure. The United States has 57 formal treaty allies – including in Europe, the Americas, and across Asia. The most advanced industrial democracies in the world – including all G7 nations – are formal treaty allies.
These alliances operate as political force multipliers, extending US military, economic, and especially its political reach far beyond what it would be on its own. Thus, the US and its major allies account for around 75% of global military spending. And the US, EU, and Japan account for more than half of global GDP. In contrast, neither Russia nor China have many treaty allies – and none with the economic and military might that major American allies possess.
America’s waning influence
Despite its military, economic, and even political dominance around the world, America’s influence has waned over the years and now faces its starkest challenge since at least the end of the Cold War. During the past quarter century, America has made major foreign policy mistakes that have exacted a toll on its global standing. It engaged in endless wars in Afghanistan, in the Middle East, which brought untold death and destruction but no stability or victory.
At the same time, the United States failed to act in ways that reinforced the global rules-based order it has long championed. It failed to enforce its own redlines in Syria against chemical weapons use in 2013, responded slowly and with too little to Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, ignored Iran’s attack on Saudi oil production in 2019, botched its withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2021, and chose not to deter Russia from invading Ukraine in 2022. Washington’s defence of Israel this year helped protect it against hundreds of Iranian missiles, but its refusal to use its leverage over Tel Aviv to end the humanitarian nightmare in Gaza has greatly weakened America’s standing around the world. For all too many, America has become as much part of the problem as part of any solution.
The Trump effect
The re-election of Donald Trump raises further doubts about America’s preeminence. Trump’s election reflects a growing sense, at least among his voters, that the burdens of global leadership are outweighing the benefits [4]. Republicans are generally less supportive of an active American role in the world and prefer staying out of world affairs. They are less enamoured with alliances and generally less willing to support using US troops to defend allies (with Israel being a notable exception).
These views are fully consistent with – indeed, they are reflective of – Trump’s “America First” approach to US engagement around the globe. In sharp contrast to his 14 predecessors since World War II, Trump rejects the rules-based system and the idea of America as its global leader. Instead of leading, Trump believes in winning. He sees every relationship, with friend and foe alike, as transactional and what matters in all of them is that America wins.
Thus, Trump views alliances in transactional terms – where the protection the US is willing to provide others depends on the monetary value of doing so. He will demand countries hosting US forces to pay the cost of their deployment – of the bases, the personnel and material, and the cost of their training and upkeep – a value that is far beyond the kind of host-nation support allies have traditionally provided. More importantly, by seeing alliances in transactional terms rather than the security they provide, Trump’s return to power will raise serious doubts in the minds of allies about the credibility and longevity of America’s commitment to their security. In other words, allied bonds will likely weaken, if not break altogether, even if allies decide to pay more for keeping American troops engaged.
Trump’s economic policy perspective will further undermine alliance cohesion, for his number one priority will be to raise tariffs up to 20% on all imports, no matter their origin, and an additional 60% on imports to China. It is possible that the imposition of tariffs will produce deals for new terms of trade, including terms that benefit both sides. But Trump, who focuses mainly on the trade in goods, will seek those deals bilaterally and purely on economic terms – for allies and adversaries alike.
The next twelve months will be a period of great uncertainty. The rules-based order that has stood as the foundation of American preeminence is being eroded from within. Alliances will be less secure and commitments less certain. Friction over trade will increase between the United States and other countries. Trump’s America will treat every country the same, judged first and foremost by what they can do for him and for the United States.
America’s allies will have to decide whether they are better off striking a deal with Washington to try and persuade it to remain engaged or to bandwagon to ensure their security and prosperity together and with less reliance on the United States. America’s adversaries will find more opportunity to work together, as some are already doing. They will have more room for manoeuvre and greater opportunity to extend their influence into areas and places America has long dominated, including in Europe and East Asia.
The net result will be growing friction, increased uncertainty, and less American influence around the world. America will still be the most powerful country, able to exercise its military and economic might at great cost to others. But it will find fewer friends and have less influence than has been the case for most of the past 80 years.
