Situation update: French legislative elections

With a record participation of 66.7%, the largest turnout for a French election since 1997, the RN won 33.1% of the vote. The RN were followed by the left coalition, Nouveau Front Populaire (NFP) with 28%, and President Macron’s coalition Ensemble with 20%. However, only a few candidates received over 50% of the vote to be elected in the first round. The RN will have candidates in the second round for 485 out of 577 constituencies, while NFP have candidates in 446 constituencies.

An uncertain outcome

Up to 306 constituencies are estimated to have more than two candidates facing off in the second-round, adding to the uncertainty of the final results. Several leaders from NFP and Ensemble have called for agreements to block the RN and for third and fourth candidates to withdraw from the race. The final candidates list will be published on 2 July. The RN is expected to win a majority, with at least 240 seats, however, are unlikely to win an outright majority (over 289 seats).

Expect public agitation in France in the coming weeks

Public agitation risks in France are moderate, although will remain heightened in the coming weeks. Several thousand people took part in anti-far-right protests at Place de la République in Paris following the announcement of results on 30 June. Additional protests were reported in Lyon, Nice and other urban centres. Isolated clashes with the police were reported in Paris and Lyon, reflecting the incidental security risks associated with all election-related protests. Further protests and unrest are highly likely in urban centres across France ahead of the second-round vote on 7 July and following the second-round announcement of results.

Healix can provide GSOC clients with real-time alerts, event monitoring and security assistance in the event of clashes. Contact enquiries@healix.com for more information.