What you need to know about the US Election

On Tuesday 5 November, Americans will cast their vote for the next leader of their country. The current vice president, Kamala Harris, is running as the Democratic candidate. Former president Donald Trump, is running as the Republican candidate. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz and Ohio Senator JD Vance are the Democratic and Republican vice presidents, respectively. In this election, Americans will also elect 34 senators and 435 representatives for the House. Several states will also include ballot measures, allowing voters to decide on specific laws or issues.

Presidential elections are indirect, which means voters cast their ballots for an elector of the Electoral College, who in turn pledges to support Trump or Harris. The United States is made up of 538 electors across the 50 states. The winner of the presidential election is required to receive the support of at least 270 electors. Officials tend to declare a “projected winner” shortly after Election Day, although Congress takes until January 2025 to announce the official results.

What's driving voter choice?

Surveys indicate that the main concerns for American voters are the state of the economy, border security, national security and the continuation of democracy.

Democrat-leaning voters tend to prioritise topics that include the state of US democracy, reproductive rights and potential impact on the Supreme Court. Republican-leaning voters place a stronger emphasis on immigration, the economy and national security. This division underscores the heightened polarisation and divides along party allegiance. This election will be defined by the voting pattern of unregistered voters in “swing states”, where both candidates have a chance of winning the Electoral College.

Healix assesses Harris as most likely to win (55%), although Trump (45%) retains a realistic chance of victory. Most poll aggregators, such as 548, Silver Bulletin and Financial Times, suggest that Harris has maintained a small lead since being endorsed as the Democratic candidate by President Joe Biden in late July. Her advantage is minimal and within the margin of error, which means that a Trump victory cannot be ruled out. Trump has seen a surge in support since mid-October, with most of the impact being driven by improved poll performance in the “swing states” of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.

What does it mean for business?

Small businesses are particularly concerned about the impact of the upcoming election and are working to minimise spending. Multinational companies will also be affected by election outcomes.

The National Federation of Independent Business’ uncertainty index rose by almost 10% in September to what is now the highest level on record. Nearly one in four business owners claims that inflation is their biggest issue. Political uncertainty related to the transitional process creates additional hurdles, particularly due to the prospect of Trump challenging the results of the election. Cyclical trends will also shape businesses in the lead-up to 5 November. Precedent indicates the demand for alcohol consumption and domestic air travel is almost certain to decrease. Harris and Trump hold similar views on trade policies with Beijing, which means that American companies operating in China are unlikely to be particularly impacted by election results in this cycle. There is however, a growing concern from electric vehicle (EV) manufacturers, as Trump pledged to roll back vehicle emissions standards and financial incentives to EVs.

Advice for organisations and personnel operating in-country

• Temporarily bypass all election-related gatherings due to the elevated risk of unrest and associated disruption. If caught in a protest, follow official directives and move perpendicular to the direction of the march so as to exit the protest as quickly as possible.
• Ensure business plans and itineraries on key dates, such as Election Day and the presidential inauguration. Account for heightened security risks and operational disruption on those days.
• Where applicable, remain neutral on social media and refrain from making public statements of opinion about political affiliation.
• Closely monitor election-related developments via local and international media reporting. Pay attention to trusted multi-source intelligence advisories such as the Healix Sentinel Risk Management Platform.