What you need to know about the India-Pakistan conflict

The conflict started when India launched missile strikes, under the codename “Operation Sindoor”, that targeted nine locations in Pakistan on 7 May. India claimed the strikes were precisely targeting Pakistani militant sites, while Pakistan stated that the operation resulted in civilian fatalities. What followed was a barrage of cross-border drone and airstrikes in both countries, in addition to aerial dogfights in which Pakistan reportedly downed at least one Indian fighter aircraft. The flurry of military activity resulted in significant disruption to air travel due to airspace closures and flight cancellations. Fears grew of a wider conflict between the two nuclear-armed countries.

The situation deteriorated further during the morning hours (local time) on 10 May; Indian airstrikes targeting Pakistani military facilities followed by Pakistani retaliatory strikes on Indian military sites marked a significant escalation. The conflict came to a halt shortly afterwards when, following direct communications and third-party intervention by the United States, India and Pakistan announced a ceasefire on 10 May at 12h30 (GMT). Despite violations, the ceasefire is holding as of 13 May – a marked improvement in external conflict risks – and the operational environment has been improving regionwide.

Why did the conflict happen?

Relations between India and Pakistan have long been poor, and both sides have engaged in antagonistic rhetoric in the last six months. Bilateral tensions significantly rose after a terror attack which killed 26 tourists in the town of Pahalgam in India's Jammu and Kashmir state on 22 April. According to various sources, the perpetrators singled out Hindus during the attack. ‘The Resistance Front’, a militant group operating in the region, initially claimed responsibility for the attack, although this has yet to be confirmed officially. India has long linked the Resistance Front to the Lashkar-e-Taiba (LeT) militant group, which it alleges is based in Pakistan. After holding Pakistan responsible for the attack, India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT), an agreement governing the ownership of rivers flowing from India into Pakistan. Pakistan denied any involvement in the Pahalgam attack and responded to the suspension of the IWT with tit-for-tat measures.

What is the outlook?

While we assess that the ceasefire will likely hold through at least the next 48-72 hours and improve the short-term security risk outlook, longer-term peace remains tenuous. Longstanding issues will keep external conflict risks between India and Pakistan elevated. Until Pakistan addresses India’s concerns regarding cross-border terrorism and India continues to threaten the flow of rivers into Pakistan, the possibility of a reignition of the conflict remains high. The dispute over the Kashmir region remains the ultimate flashpoint between the two countries, and militant groups could use the currently heightened tensions to trigger another conflict in South Asia.

Advice for travellers

• Anticipate residual disruption to air travel in India and Pakistan as airlines and the authorities exercise caution. Reconfirm the status of flights if due to travel via air in the coming one week.
• Continue to defer non-essential travel to India’s Jammu and Kashmir (J&K) state and Pakistan’s Azad Jammu and Kashmir (AJK) territory over at least the next 2-3 months, as it remains a flashpoint for external conflict.
• Ensure contingency and evacuation plans are up-to-date, as another significant deterioration in the risk environment cannot be ruled out despite an improvement since the ceasefire came into effect.

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