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Foreword

Shifting alliances and growing divisions – what does this mean for global business risk?

As we approach the close of 2024, the global security environment is more precarious than it has been in decades. The post-Cold War era, once marked by relative stability, has given way to an increasingly volatile and unpredictable landscape. The rules-based international order, long upheld by liberal democracies and underpinned by mutual cooperation, is now under siege. Threats to global stability are not isolated to any one region but are proliferating across multiple domains – security, economic, and political.

Across the globe, the balance of power is shifting as the world divides into competing blocs, and new alliances are being forged. Conflicts once contained are expanding, while dormant hotspots threaten to ignite. For business leaders, this creates a stark reality: the decisions made today will not only shape how they navigate these growing risks, but also determine their resilience in a world where stability and economic order are no longer guaranteed.

So, we must ask: how have the last twelve months altered global stability? What new risks do businesses now face, and how can they be navigated with confidence? These are the questions this report seeks to address, helping readers understand the evolving risks and providing the knowledge to mitigate them.

The tapestry is unravelling

Since the end of the Cold War, two distinct eras defined global risk: the “end of history” in the 1990s and the post-9/11 world. Both came with their challenges, but the risk landscape was navigable for those who understood its dynamics. However, the events of recent years marked the start of a new era. Today’s global risk landscape is less predictable, more volatile, and carries more direct consequences for businesses.

The security architecture that was once relatively stable is under immense pressure from threats beyond traditional military concerns. Cyber warfare, disinformation, economic coercion, and the weaponization of technology have moved from peripheral issues to central strategic challenges, fundamentally reshaping how nations and businesses must approach security.

In Europe, the war in Ukraine has exposed the fragility of the continent’s security, with Russia’s aggression directly challenging NATO. In Asia, the prospect of conflict between China and Taiwan, and growing tensions in the South China Sea, signal new flashpoints. Meanwhile, the Middle East remains volatile, with Iran’s proxy conflict with Israel threatening to expand. These flashpoints underscore a world where stability, once maintained by Western dominance, is rapidly fraying. Does the election of Trump as the 47th President of the US accelerate this? Certainly, if he sticks to election promises such as the end of America underwriting European defence, the imposition of tariffs on imports into America and withdrawal from climate change agreements.

It could mean a return to a more isolationist America and the end of the Pax Americana. However, it is too early to tell. This uncertainty makes it critical for businesses to build resilience against potential future shocks.

Internal instability within liberal democracies is also on the rise. Populism, authoritarianism, and societal divisions are weakening democratic institutions and eroding the rule of law and with it, the pillars of global security. According to our data, 96% of risk and security managers believe the world is more dangerous, with political instability their primary concern.

New alliances are forming

Global partnerships that once shaped international relations are changing rapidly, with the growing alignment between China and Russia being a notable example. Historically rivals, these two powers are now collaborating across military, economic, and technological domains, forming a new axis of influence intended to counterbalance the United States and its allies. Similarly, BRICS is emerging as a possible counterweight to Western institutions like the G7, with its expansion to include nations such as Saudi Arabia and Ethiopia. This group positions itself as a voice for the Global South, potentially reshaping global trade and regulatory norms.

However, these alliances are far from cohesive. Conflicting interests among BRICS members
– such as the rivalry between China and India – highlight their fragility. Even the partnership between Russia and China, though currently strong, is largely driven by convenience, leaving its long-term durability uncertain.

Changing global outlook

The global balance of power is shifting in ways few could have predicted a decade ago.

China, with its economic strength, has become a strategic competitor of the West across military, economic, and technological domains. Russia, despite its weakening economy, remains a disruptor, employing asymmetric strategies to advance its interests.

For businesses, these shifts introduce a number of challenges. Global markets are becoming more fragmented, with protectionist measures on the rise and an increasing likelihood of further economic decoupling between major powers. The growing risk of major conflict threatens to disrupt supply chains, trade routes, and inflict unprecedented damage on the global economy. Meanwhile, societal unrest, fuelled by inequality and political polarisation, adds further complexity to the business landscape. The organisations that thrive will be those that anticipate and adapt to these evolving dynamics.

Conclusion

While advancements in technology, healthcare, and prosperity have made daily life feel safer and more secure for many – particularly in Western societies – the broader world is undeniably more dangerous than it was even a few years ago, and risks have only intensified over the past twelve months. The international order is shifting beneath our feet, creating a volatile environment that will test the resilience of even the most experienced business leaders.
Through Healix Risk Radar, we aim to provide a thorough analysis of the geopolitical, security and medical risks that will shape the coming year. Supported by proprietary research and insights from the Healix Risk and Security Advisory Board, this report will equip its readers with the knowledge and tools to navigate this uncertain world and make informed, strategic decisions.

The risks ahead are substantial, but for those who are prepared, the opportunities are just as significant. Read on to equip your business with the knowledge and strategies necessary to face the future with confidence.

General Sir Richard Shirreff, KCB, CBE
Strategic Advisor, Security
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